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¿Son sesgadas las proyecciones de WEO? El caso de la proyección de crecimiento de Argentina

Frank, Luis (2021): ¿Son sesgadas las proyecciones de WEO? El caso de la proyección de crecimiento de Argentina.

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Abstract

The papers reveals the existence of a systematic bias in WEO's growth forecasts for Argentina. This bias is observed in the projection for April of the year $t-1$ and eventually in the projection for September/October of the same year, and does not coincide with the scheme found by other authors for the global growth's forecast or for large groups of countries. The conclusion, however, depends strongly on the validity of the covariance structure of the errors for between consecutive forecasts, for which it is suggested to consider this conclusion provisional.

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