Sesgos de revisión en el Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica de Argentina

Frank, Luis (2022): Sesgos de revisión en el Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica de Argentina.

Abstract

The article presents evidence of bias in the revisions of the EMAE, both in the mean and in the variance. The biases are bearish on the monthly and quarterly revisions (around -0.18 and -0.16%, respectively), and bullish (+0.34%) on the annual revisions. The monthly and quarterly biases are attributed to the series reconciliation process, while the annual biases are attributed to the distribution of the so-called "statistical discrepancy" among the macroeconomic aggregates. Due to the complexity of the covariance structure produced by the revisions, it is recommended, for econometric purposes, to use series without revision or revised only once.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Revision biases in the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity of Argentina
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity; EMAE; revision bias
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts

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