Estimation des élasticités du commerce extérieur dans des économies en développement riches en ressources naturelles : le cas des pays de la CEMAC

Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain (2018): Estimation des élasticités du commerce extérieur dans des économies en développement riches en ressources naturelles : le cas des pays de la CEMAC.

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to estimate price and demand trade elasticities of Economic and Monetary Community of Central African States (CEMAC). This work is done in a context where these countries, heavily dependents of natural resource rent, are facing a crisis due to the 2014 oil shock. This external shock and its consequences on the external equilibrium on CEMAC countries has revived the debate on the parity of CFA Franc and its economic consequences. By using Bayesian VAR and Bayesian panel regression techniques on annual data from 1986 to 2016, we found that foreign trade is relatively inelastic to prices and non-natural resources revenues in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Chad. Especially, Marshall-Lerner conditions seems not hold in CEMAC. These results suggest that devaluation should not be appropriate in order to rebalance the external trade of CEMAC countries. Also, imports are heavily inelastic of domestic demand from non-natural resource sector, which illustrates its strategic importance for these economies and the lack of industrial diversification of CEMAC countries

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Estimation of trade elasticities in resources rich developing countries : the case of CEMAC countries
• Language: French
• Keywords: Marshall-Lerner conditions; international trade; devaluation; natural resources rent; CEMAC; Bayesian econometrics
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q37 - Issues in International Trade

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