Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets

Whelan, Karl and Hegarty, Tadgh (2023): Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets.

Abstract

We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win or a draw as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019), in particular that there is a strong pattern of favourite-longshot bias. Conversely, we document how a betting market that has emerged in recent years, the Asian handicap market, can generate efficient forecasts for the same set of matches using a new methodology for mapping its odds into probabilities.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Sports Forecasting, Betting Markets, Market Efficiency, Asian Handicap
• Subjects: G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism

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