Efecto de la Oscilación del Pacífico Sur (ENSO) sobre el rendimiento del cultivo de soja en la Argentina

Frank, Luis (2023): Efecto de la Oscilación del Pacífico Sur (ENSO) sobre el rendimiento del cultivo de soja en la Argentina.

Abstract

Climate research has associated the South Pacific Oscillation (ENSO) with the occurrence of extreme weather events in South America, such as droughts and floods. However, agronomic and economic studies show that such effects are transferred weakly to agricultural production. The paper focuses on the impact of changes in the surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific on soybean yield in the Chaco-Pampean Region of Argentina. It is based on the hypothesis that the ENSO effect is not homogeneous throughout the region, and therefore computes semi-elasticities of soybean yield with respect to oceanic temperatures for 15 zones of the Chaco-Pampean region. Additionally, proposes an aggregation scheme for these semi-elasticities useful to project the national average yield. The results confirm that the effect of ENSO on the yield of the soybean crop is not homogeneous throughout the region, despite which an increase of 7.7% in the average national yield can be expected for each additional degree on the temperature of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean. The effect can, however, oscillate between 0 and 21% according to the zone, without a clear gradient in any direction being noticed. The paper discusses possible causes of this variability and alternatives to improve the estimation of the semi-elasticities at zonal and general level.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Effect of the South Pacific Oscillation (ENSO) on soybean crop yield in Argentina
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: ENSO, soybean, yield
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

References

Asteriou D. y S. Hall, 2011. Applied Econometrics. 2nd Edition. Palgrave MacMillan.

Brescia V. y D. Lema, 2001. Elasticidades de los principales cultivos pampeanos. I Reunión Rioplatense de Economía Agraria. Montevideo, 18 y 19 de Octubre de 2001. https://inta.gob.ar/sites/default/files/script-tmp-dinamica_dela_oferta_agropecuaria_pampeano.pdf

Brescia V. y D. Lema, 2007. Supply Elasticities for selected Commodities in MERCOSUR and Bolivia. EC Project EUMercoPol 2005-08. Mimeo.

Cabrini S., Colussi J. y G. Schnitkey, 2022. Third Consecutive La Niña? What to Expect from Soybean Yields in the United States, Brazil and Argentina. farmdoc daily (12):75.

de la Casa A., G. Ovando G. y G. Díaz, 2021. ENSO influence on corn and soybean yields as a base of an early warning system for agriculture in Córdoba, Argentina. European Journal of Agronomy, European Journal of Agronomy, volumen 129, septiembre 2021, 126340. ISSN 1161-0301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2021.126340

Hamed R., Vijverberg S., Van Loon A. F., Aerts J., y Coumou D., 2022. Persistent La Niña's favor joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-960

Irwin S., 2020. The Impact of Preseason La Niña Episodes on Corn and Soybean Yields in Brazil and Argentina. farmdoc daily (10):213, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Lanteri L., 1981. Precios y área sembrada de soja. Ensayos Económicos Nro. 17. BCRA. Disponible en https://www.bcra.gob.ar

Lanteri L., 2008. Respuesta a precios del área sembrada de soja en la Argentina. Ensayos Económicos Nro. 52. BCRA. Disponible en https://www.bcra.gob.ar

Lanteri L., 2011. Choques macroeconómicos en la agricultura. Alguna evidencia para la economía argentina. Investigación Económica, vol. LXX, 278, octubre-diciembre de 2011, pp. 75-100.

MacKinnon J. G., 2010. Critical values for cointegration tests, Queen's Economics Department Working Paper, No. 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics, Kingston (Ontario).

Mekbib G. Haile, Jan Brockhaus y Matthias Kalkuhl, 2016. Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries. Agricultural and Food Economics 4:17. https://d-nb.info/1113746254/34

Theil H., 1963. On the Use of Incomplete Prior Information in Regression Analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association 58: 302, 401-414. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1963.10500854

Zalazar S.M.F., Hurtado R.H. y L.A. Serio, 2013. Predictibilidad de las anomalías de precipitación durante el ciclo de los cultivos de verano en la Región Pampeana, Argentina. Rev. Agronomía & Ambiente 33(1-2): 9-20. FA-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina.