Oschinski, Matthias (2023): Assessing the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Germany's Labor Market: Insights from a ChatGPT Analysis.
Preview |
PDF
Assessing the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Germany's Labor Market- Insights from a ChatGPT Analysis .pdf Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
We assess the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on Germany’s labour market applying the methodology on suitability for machine learning (SML) scores established by Brynjolfsson et al., (2018). However, this study introduces two innovative approaches to the conventional methodology. Instead of relying on traditional crowdsourcing platforms for obtaining ratings on automatability, this research exploits the chatbot capabilities of OpenAI's ChatGPT. Additionally, in alignment with the focus on the German labor market, the study extends the application of SML scores to the European Classification of Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO). As such, a distinctive contribution of this study lies in the assessment of ChatGPT's effectiveness in gauging the automatability of skills and competencies within the evolving landscape of AI. Furthermore, the study enhances the applicability of its findings by directly mapping SML scores to the European ESCO classification, rendering the results more pertinent for labor market analyses within the European Union. Initial findings indicate a measured impact of AI on a majority of the 13,312 distinct ESCO skills and competencies examined. A more detailed analysis reveals that AI exhibits a more pronounced influence on tasks related to computer utilization and information processing. Activities involving decision-making, communication, research, collaboration, and specific technical proficiencies related to medical care, food preparation, construction, and precision equipment operation receive relatively lower scores. Notably, the study highlights the comparative advantage of human employees in transversal skills like creative thinking, collaboration, leadership, the application of general knowledge, attitudes, values, and specific manual and physical skills. Applying our rankings to German labour force data at the 2-digit ISCO level suggests that, in contrast to previous waves of automation, AI may also impact non-routine cognitive occupations. In fact, our results show that business and administration professionals as well as science and engineering associate professionals receive relatively higher rankings compared to teaching professionals, health associate professionals and personal service workers. Ultimately, the research underscores that the overall ramifications of AI on the labor force will be contingent upon the underlying motivations for its deployment. If the primary impetus is cost reduction, AI implementation might follow historical patterns of employment losses with limited gains in productivity. As such, public policy has an important role to play in recalibrating incentives to prioritize machine usefulness over machine intelligence.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Assessing the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Germany's Labor Market: Insights from a ChatGPT Analysis |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Generative AI, Labour, Skills Suitability for Machine Learning, German labour market, ESCO |
Subjects: | A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J0 - General |
Item ID: | 118300 |
Depositing User: | Dr Matthias Oschinski |
Date Deposited: | 31 Aug 2023 13:23 |
Last Modified: | 13 Dec 2024 02:56 |
References: | Acemoglu, D., & Autor, D. (2011). Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings. In D. Card & O. Ashenfelter (Eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics (Vols. 4, Part B, pp. 1043–1171). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-7218(11)02410-5. Acemoglu, D., Autor, D., Hazell, J., & Restrepo, P. (2022). Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies. Journal of Labor Economics, 40(S1), S293–S340. https://doi.org/10.1086/718327. Acemoglu, D., He, A., Le Maire, D., Autor, D., Faulkender, M., Jaeger, S., Kline, P., Maksimovic, M., Marens, R., Naidu, S., Sondak, H., Stansbury, A., Tate, G., Thesmar, D., Yang, L., Zingales, L., Hall, V. M., & Smith, R. H. (2022). NBER Working Paper Series Eclipse Of Rent-Sharing: The Effects Of Managers’ Business Education On Wages And The Labor Share In The US And Denmark. http://www.nber.org/papers/w29874. Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S. (2023). Power and Progress: Our 1000-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity. PublicAffairs. Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018). The race between man and machine: Implications of technology for growth, factor shares, and employment. In American Economic Review (Vol. 108, Issue 6, pp. 1488–1542). American Economic Association. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160696. Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2019). Automation and new tasks: How technology displaces and reinstates labor. In Journal of Economic Perspectives (Vol. 33, Issue 2, pp. 3–30). American Economic Association. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.2.3. Agrawal, A., Gans, J. S., & Goldfarb, A. (2023). Do we want less automation? Science, 381(6654), 155–158. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adh9429. Autor, D. H., Levy, F., & Murnane, R. J. (2003). The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. Bresnahan, T. F., & Trajtenbergb, M. (1995). General purpose technologies “Engines of growth”? In Journal of Econometrics (Vol. 65). Brynjolfsson, E., Li, D., & Raymond, L. (2023). Generative AI at Work. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31161/w31161.pdf. Brynjolfsson, E., Mitchell, T., & Rock, D. (2018). What Can Machines Learn and What Does It Mean for Occupations and the Economy? AEA Papers and Proceedings, 108, 43–47. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20181019. Eloundou, T., Manning, S., Mishkin, P., & Rock, D. (2023). GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models. http://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130. Felten, E. W., Raj, M., & Seamans, R. (2019). The effect of artificial intelligence on human labor: An ability-based approach. AOM 2019: Understanding the Inclusive Organization - 79th Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management, 2019-August. https://doi.org/10.5465/AMBPP.2019.140. Jovanovic, B., & Rousseau, P. L. (2005). General Purpose Technologies. In P. Aghion & S. N. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth (Part B, Vol. 1, pp. 1181–1224). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01018-X. Lane, M., & Saint-Martin, A. (2021). The impact of Artificial Intelligence on the labour market: What do we know so far? https://doi.org/10.1787/7c895724-en. Lawrence F. Katz, & Kevin M. Murphy. (1992). Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-`987. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(1), 35–78. Noy, S., & Zhang, W. (2023). Experimental evidence on the productivity effects of generative artificial intelligence. Available at https://ssrn.com/abstract=4375283. Webb, M. (2019). The impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market. Available at SSRN 3482150. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/118300 |