Impacto de los contaminantes por gases de efecto invernadero en el crecimiento económico en 86 países (1990-2019): Sobre la curva inversa de Kuznets

Torres-Brito, David Israel and Cruz-Aké, Salvador and Venegas-Martínez, Francisco (2023): Impacto de los contaminantes por gases de efecto invernadero en el crecimiento económico en 86 países (1990-2019): Sobre la curva inversa de Kuznets.

Abstract

La presente investigación indaga en la relación entre emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) y crecimiento económico; en particular, busca medir el impacto de estas emisiones en el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), a partir de la identificación de las fuentes contaminantes y sus costos asociados, mediante la construcción de un panel de datos anuales para 86 países distribuidos en 4 niveles de ingreso y 6 regiones, a través del periodo de 30 años 1990-2019. La relación de interés se contextualiza en un marco de estructura de mercado, por lo que se consideran datos del crecimiento de los sectores más grandes de la economía, así como datos demográficos para cada país y año. También se toma la información del mercado energético, así como la participación de los recursos renovables en este, y la generación de energía por tipo de combustible. A su vez, se explora la relación entre ingreso y la participación de los recursos naturales en la economía, con lo que se identifica la eficiencia energética y el aprovechamiento de los recursos como proxy de la tecnología disponible para cada grupo de ingreso. Además de un análisis exploratorio (descriptivo) de los datos, se emplea un modelo de regresión cuantílico para datos de panel con efectos fijos aditivos (QRPD), el cual es un caso especial del estimador de regresión cuantílica generalizado (GQR). En el uso del modelo se aplica el método de optimización adaptativa de Montecarlo basado en cadenas de Markov (MCMC). Se verifica la hipótesis de la investigación tanto a nivel descriptivo como econométrico: una relación inversa entre crecimiento económico y emisiones de GEI. Se devela una curva ambiental de Kuznets, al observarse que las emisiones de GEI se incrementan a mayores niveles de ingreso de los países, pero alcanzan un punto de inflexión, de modo que los países de ingreso alto emiten menores emisiones de CO2eq que el resto. Asimismo, el modelo estimado revela que las emisiones de GEI contribuyen de manera positiva en el crecimiento económico, pero en el largo plazo, al considerar la variable cuadrática, se alcanza un punto de inflexión a partir del cual las emisiones presentan un estimador negativo. También se identifica una curva tecnológica de Kuznets (CTK) a partir del análisis de la eficiencia energética de cada grupo de ingreso, la cual responde al desarrollo tecnológico, cambios en la estructura económica internacional y la caída en los precios de las energías limpias. / This research inquiries into the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and economic growth; in particular, it seeks to measure the impact of these emissions on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), based on the identification of polluting sources and associated costs, through the construction of an annualized data panel for 86 countries distributed in 4 income levels and 6 regions, through the 30-year period 1990-2019. The relationship of interest is contextualized within a market structure framework, for which there were taken growth rates for each major economic sector, as well as demographic data for each country and year. Information on the energy market is also considered, including the share of renewable resources and the generation of energy by type of fuel, which helps to identify the efficiency of energy consumption and use of natural resources as a proxy of technology availability by income group. In addition to an exploratory (descriptive) analysis of the data, a quantile regression model for panel data with additive fixed effects (QRPD) is used, as a special case of the generalized quantile regression (GQR) estimator. In the use of the model, the adaptive optimization of Markov chain Monte Carlo Method (MCMC) is applied. The research hypothesis is verified both at a descriptive and econometric level: an inverse relationship between economic growth and GHG emissions. An Environmental Kuznets curve is observed (EKC), revealing that GHG emissions increase with income levels reaching a turning point, so that high-income countries emit fewer CO2eq emissions than the rest. Likewise, the estimated model reveals that GHG emissions contribute positively to economic growth, but in the long term, by considering the quadratic variable, a turning point is reached from which emissions present a negative estimator. Finally, a Kuznets technology curve (CTK) is also identified from the energy efficiency analysis of each income group that responds to technological development, changes in the international economic structure and the drop in clean energy prices.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Impact of the Effect of Greenhouse Gas Pollutants on Economic Growth in 86 Countries (1990-2019): On the inverse Kuznets Curve
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Gases de Efecto Invernadero, Crecimiento económico, Curva Ambiental de Kuznets, Datos de panel, Regresión cuantílica / Greenhouse Gases, Economic Growth, Environmental Kuznets curve, Panel data, Quantile regression
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects

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