Разработка и апробация цифровой модели принятия эффективных инвестиционных решений для формирования стратегий развития экономических субъектов

Basharina, Olga and Baranova, Nina and Larin, Sergey (2023): Разработка и апробация цифровой модели принятия эффективных инвестиционных решений для формирования стратегий развития экономических субъектов. Published in: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice , Vol. 22, No. 9 (28 September 2023): pp. 1699-1724.

Abstract

Subject. Sanction restrictions sharply decreased possibilities to attract external borrowings and substantiated the expediency of internal investments. This necessitated software tools enabling calculations and investment decisions. The developed a digital model of ISPI (Information System Portfolio Investor) will help make smart investment decisions, including at the government level. Objectives. The study aims to build a digital model to identify the most attractive investment areas at the regional, country, and cross-country level. Methods. The ISPI model is based on the Markowitz portfolio theory, the Profitability-Risk Model (PRM), and optimization methods. For our calculations, we used yields on Major and Sector Indices of the UK, India, China, USA, France, South Africa for 2014–2021, in one-month increments. Results. Using the developed ISPI model, we constructed scatter plots of leading stock market indices and identified the leading sectors of national economies of the studied countries and the most attractive investment areas. We solved the problem of finding a global optimum for the studied countries, differentiated the leading economic sectors by the level of investment risk, determined that an international portfolio is the most preferable for investment. Conclusions. Our ISPI model helps investors identify a region or country for smart investments. The model enables to determine industries in which investing is most justified within the nearest investment horizon. The model also helps identify the most appropriate financial instruments for investing in individual countries.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Building and testing a digital model for effective investment decisions to form strategies for development of economic entities
• Language: Russian
• Keywords: economic entity, economic development, ISPI digital model, effective investment solution.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity; F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization > F63 - Economic Development; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies

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