Muti-Scenarios Population Projection for Algeria using R

Flici, Farid (2020): Muti-Scenarios Population Projection for Algeria using R.

Abstract

In this manual, we present a methodology of doing a multi-scenarios population projections for Algeria using R. The methodology used consists of the Cohort-Component Method. A detailled methodology of doing mono-scenario population projection in R was already presented in Flici (2020). Here, mortality Scenarios are defined using the predictive intervals of a stochastic forecast, while the Fertility scenarios are expert-based. Here, 5 scenarios are simulated, the Age-Specific fertility rates are then defined using the Lee-Carter Model for fertility (Lee,1993).Later on, we shows how to make dynamic visualizations of the multi-scenario projections.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: multi-scenario; projection; Algeria; R
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

References

Flici, F. (2016a). Coherent mortality forecasting for the Algerian population. Presented at Samos Conference in Actuarial Sciences and Finance,Samos, Greece (May). ˆ

Flici,F.(2016b). Projection des taux de fécondité de la population algérienne á l'horizon 2050. MPRA Paper No. 99077 ,posted 12 Mar 2020. [https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/99077/1/MPRA_paper _99077.pdf]

Flici,F. (2017). Longevity and pension plan sustainability in Algerie: Taking the retirees mortality experience into account. Doctoral dissertation, Higher National School of Statistics and Applied Economics (ENSSEA), Kolea, Algeria.

Flici,F. (2020). Populations Projections Using R- Including Dynamic graphical Visualisations. A textbook published with Gitbook, Availableat: [https://farid-flici.gitbook.io/pop-proj-dz/], Versionof2020-04-30. ˆ

Hyndman,R.J., Booth,H., &Yasmeen,F. (2013). Coherent mortality forecasting: the product-ratio method with functional time series models. Demography, 50 (1), 261-283.

Lee,R.D. (1993). Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimat elevel. International Journal of Forecasting,9(2), 187-202.

Smith,S.K., Tayman,J., & Swanson,D.A.(2013). Overview of the Cohort-Component Method. In A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections (pp. 45-50). Springer, Dordrecht. DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0_3