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Reserves, Prices, and Policy: An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Crop Reserves in Arab Countries

Chellai, Fatih (2024): Reserves, Prices, and Policy: An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Crop Reserves in Arab Countries.

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Subject and purpose of work: In recent years, global food systems have faced challenges like disasters, extreme weather events, and market fluctuations, such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This study analyzes strategic crop reserves, specifically for wheat and rice, in Arab countries. It examines the objectives and obstacles associated with these reserves.

Material and methods: different statistical methods have been used, including regression analysis and neural network prediction models.

Results: Findings reveal significant agricultural production deficits in Arab economies. However, some countries maintain substantial crop reserves. We found an inverse relationship between wheat reserves and wheat prices . Additionally, energy prices correlate positively with agricultural commodity prices. Forecasting models anticipate short-term global grain stock stability but predict short-term increases in agricultural price indices (until 2024) followed by long-term decreases (by 2030).

Conclusions: Policymakers should support agricultural strategies, particularly for strategic crops. To address current challenges, we suggest securing long-term contracts for strategic crops, diversifying suppliers, and avoiding reliance on a few sources.

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