Impact of Non-Oil Export on Nigeria’s Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Approach

Abdullahi, Isah Usman and Muhammad, Umar Farouq and Yahaya, Umar Isah (2024): Impact of Non-Oil Export on Nigeria’s Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Approach.

Abstract

This study used a disaggregated macroeconomic model and an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) to analyze the effects of non-oil exports (NOE) on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980 to 2021. Before estimating the model, unit root and co-integration tests were conducted to determine the stationarity and long-run properties of the variables. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test results indicated that all-time series were non-stationary at level but became stationary after first differencing. The Johansen co-integration test results revealed that the variables are co-integrated, suggesting a long-run equilibrium relationship among them. The ECM findings indicated that NOE components positively impacted Nigeria's economic growth in both the short and long run, although the impact was largely insignificant. Based on these results, it was recommended that Nigeria's export development strategy be refocused and reinforced to address supply capacity constraints in various NOE sectors. The argument is that the government can initially manage and develop these non-oil sectors and later transfer them to private enterprises.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Economic Growth: Non-Oil Export (NOE): Trade Openness: Exchange Rate
• Subjects: G - Financial Economics > G0 - General

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