Efficacité de la politique budgétaire à Madagascar

RAJAONARISON, Njakanasandratra R. (2024): Efficacité de la politique budgétaire à Madagascar.

Abstract

This article assesses the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Madagascar by analyzing the impact of expansionary policies, such as increased public spending and tax cuts, on economic growth, aggregate demand, and macroeconomic stability. Using a calibrated DSGE model, the study explores how different fiscal interventions and spending affect household consumption, private investment, and national production within the context of Madagascar's structural challenges. Findings indicate that tax reductions stimulate private consumption and investment, while increases in operational spending more significantly boost national production. Error variance analysis suggests that, for Madagascar, a policy focused on public spending may be more effective than simply reducing taxes. The study concludes with recommendations for more efficient budget management to reduce reliance on external financing and promote strategic investments for economic recovery

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Effectiveness of fiscal policy : case of Madagascar
• Language: French
• Keywords: politique budgétaire, DSGE, Madagascar
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy

References

Andrianady, J. R., Njakanasandratra, R., & Gerzhino, H. (2023). Analyse des impacts de la tension Russie-Ukraine à Madagascar, MPRA Paper No. 116561.

Agence Française de Développement. (2022)."L’UE et la France soutiennent le développement de l’inclusion financière à Madagascar". Disponible à : https://www.proparco.fr/fr/actualites/lue-et-la-france-soutiennent-le-developpement-de-linclusion-financiere-madagascar.

Barhangana, F. A. (2006). "Efficacité de la politique budgétaire en RDC". Mémoire de Licence, inédit, Université Catholique du Graben.

Barro, R. J. (1991). "Economic growth in a cross-section of countries". Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407–443.

Benoit, E. (1973). "Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries". Boston: Lexington Books.

Bouakez, H., et al. (2014). "Fiscal policy and external adjustment: New evidence". Journal of International Money and Finance, 40, 1–20.

Barro, R. J., & Gordon, D. B. (1983). "A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model". Journal of Political Economy, 91(4), 589–610.

Christos, C., & Athanasios, T. (2024)."The medium-term effects of fiscal policy rules". Journal of International Money and Finance.

Coenen, G., & Straub, R. (2005). "Non-Ricardian households and fiscal policy in an estimated DSGE model of the euro area". Computing in Economics and Finance, p-102.

Costa, C. J. (2016). "Understanding DSGE". Vernon Press. (Series in Economic Methodology).

Samuels, D. (2024). "A Literature Review on Fiscal Policy in Nigeria". Elsevier.

Davig, T., & Leeper, E. M. (2010). "Monetary–fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus". University of Notre Dame.

Deger, S. (1986). "Economic development and defense expenditures". Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), 179–196.

Diamond, J. (1989). "The effect of government spending on savings and growth". Journal of Public Economics, 38(1), 3–27.

Diwambuena, M. J., & Boketsu, B. J.-P. (2019). "Politique budgétaire et performances macroéconomiques en République Démocratique du Congo". Revue Congo Challenge, 1(2), 202–227.

Easterly, W., & Rebelo, S. (1993). "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation". Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(1), 417–458.

Epstein, G., et al. (2011). "Economic Reform and Public Budget Management in Madagascar". Edward Elgar Publishing.

Fatas, A., & Mihov, I. (2001). "The effects of fiscal policy on consumption and employment: Theory and evidence". INSEAD; CEPR; ABFER.

Galí, J., López-Salido, J. D., & Vallés, J. (2004). "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption". European Central Bank.

Greenwood, J., et al. (1988). "GHH preferences on households’ portfolio choices: Theoretical implications and empirical evidence". SSRN Journal.

Gwatkin, D. R. (1983). "Health and economic development: An economic perspective". The Johns Hopkins University Press.

Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1990). "Trade, Innovation, and Growth".The American Economic Review, 80(2), 86–91.

Haddad, L., Alderman, H., Appleton, S., Behrman, J., Rinaldi, R., & Vu, T. V. (1990). "Intrahousehold allocation of consumption: A study of four developing countries". Living Standards Measurement Study Working Paper No. 70. The World Bank.

Herrera, S., & Vincent, B. (2008). "Public Expenditure and Consumption Volatility". World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4633. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1149566.

Jamison, D. T. (1993). "Education and health as investments". Journal of Human Resources, 28(2), 293–317.

Landau, D. (1986). "Government expenditure and economic growth: A cross-country study". Southern Economic Journal, 52(3), 784–796.

Levine, R., & Renelt, D. (1992). "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions". American Economic Review, 82(4), 942–963.

Kydland, F. E., & Prescott, E. C. (1977). "Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans". Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 473–490.

Madarevue. (2020). "Contribution du secteur informel aux revenus des ménages". Revue des Sciences, de Technologies et de l’Environnement, volume III. Available at: http://madarevues.recherches.gov. mg/?CONTRIBUTION-DU-SECTEUR-INFORMEL-SUR-LES-REVENUS-DES-MENAGES-CAS-DE-MADAGASCAR.

Mireille, R., et al. (2017). "Governance and Public Finance in Madagascar: Assessing the Reform Process". Oxford University Press.

Ministère du Tourisme Madagascar. (2022). Rapport sur les Statistiques du tourisme 2022.

M’pya, M. B. (2020). "Efficacité de la politique budgétaire en RDC". Nikita, P. (2023). "Fiscal policy and economic growth in the short and long run: A literature review".doi: 10.7256/2454- 65x.2023.6.69281.

Otani, I., & Villanueva, D. (1990). "Public savings and economic growth". Journal of Economic Development,25(1), 17–30.

Psacharopoulos, G. (1993). "Returns to investment in education: A global update".World Development, 21(6),935–949.

Musgrave, R. (2003). "Les trois fonctions de l’État". Théorie des finances publiques. Available at: https://www.alternatives-economiques.fr/trois-fonctions-de-letat- selon-richard-musgrave/00027793.

Ram, R. (1986). "Government size and economic growth: A new framework and some evidence from cross-section and time-series data".American Economic Review, 76(3), 191–197.

Ryoo, J. K. (1988). "The impact of health on economic growth in developing countries". Journal of Development Economics, 29(1), 173–187.

Sattar, M. A. (1993). "Public expenditure and economic growth: A cross-country study". Journal of Development Economics, 41(1), 37–54.

Scully, G. W. (1989). "Productivity growth and the public sector". Journal of Political Economy, 97(6), 1161–1182.

Sims, E. (2017). "Graduate Macro Theory II: Fiscal Policy in RBC Model". University of Notre Dame.

Smets, F., & Wouters, R. (2003). "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Euro area".

Tavulyandanda, N. A. (2015). "Politique Budgétaire en RDC : Instruments, Moyens et Efficacité". Mémoire de Licence inédit, Université Catholique du Graben.

Torres, J. L. (2016). "Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Models". (2e éd.). Vernon Press. (Series in Economic Methodology).

Fernández-Villaverde, J., Rubio-Ramírez, J. F., & Schorfheide, F. (2016). "Solution and estimation methods for DSGE models".

Winkler, W. E. (1990). "String comparator metrics and enhanced decision rules in the Fellegi-Sunter model of record linkage". Reports - Evaluative/Feasibility (142).

World Bank. (1993a). "Investing in health: World Development Report 1993". Oxford University Press.

World Bank. (1993b). "The East Asian miracle: Economic growth and public policy". Oxford University Press.