Climate Exodus: Navigating Climate Change, Migration and Security in the Levant

Dagher, Leila and Farajalla, Nadim and Jabbour, Hiba and Zreik, Mohamad (2024): Climate Exodus: Navigating Climate Change, Migration and Security in the Levant.

Abstract

Decades of political tension and conflict have led to mass displacement in the Levant, placing immense pressure on the region’s limited resources. Climate change acts as a risk multiplier, intensifying vulnerabilities through more frequent extreme events that reduce water availability and make agricultural production less predictable. The resulting competition for dwindling resources fuels tensions, exacerbating the region’s security challenges. As climate impacts worsen, conflicts over resources are expected to escalate, perpetuating a cycle of displacement that threatens regional and global stability. Addressing governance failures and enhancing climate resilience through coordinated efforts is crucial to reducing the Levant’s vulnerability and mitigating prolonged crises.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Levant; climate change; refugees; conflict; displacement
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q0 - General > Q01 - Sustainable Development; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth

References

Abou Zaki S., Dagher L. & Salam A. (2022). “Addressing Food Insecurity in Crisis-Stricken Lebanon,” LCPS Policy Brief number 69.

AFED, "Arab Environment in 10 Years," Arab Forum for Environment and Development (2017).

Ali, A. (2023). Disaggregating Jordan’s syrian refugee response: the ‘many hands’ of the Jordanian state. Mediterranean Politics, 28(2), 178-201.

Baylouny, A. M. (2020). When blame backfires: Syrian refugees and citizen grievances in Jordan and Lebanon. Cornell University Press.

Belcastro, F. (2017). From Domestic to Regional: The Civil War Conundrum and the Cases of Syria and Algeria. Civil Wars, 19(2), 198-219.

Belzer, D., Mosey, G., Plympton, P., & Dagher, L. (2007). Home Performance with ENERGY STAR: Utility Bill Analysis on Homes Participating in Austin Energy's Program (No. NREL/TP-640-41903). National Renewable Energy Lab.(NREL), Golden, CO (United States).

Bird, L., Dagher, L., & Swezey, B. (2007). Green Power Marketing in the United States: A Status Report . National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-670-42502, Golden, Colorado, USA.

Corsi, A., & Selod, H. (2023). Land matters: can better governance and management of scarcity prevent a looming crisis in the Middle East and North Africa?. World Bank Publications.

Dinc, P., & Eklund, L. (2024). Syrian farmers in the midst of drought and conflict: the causes, patterns, and aftermath of land abandonment and migration. Climate and Development, 16(5), 349-362.

El Kharraz, J., El-Sadek, A., Ghaffour, N., & Mino, E. (2012). Water scarcity and drought in WANA countries. Procedia Engineering, 33, 14-29.

EUISS, "Climate Change and Security in the Levant," 2018.

Farajalla, N., Zgheib, L., Korbane, K., and M. Zaghbour, “Climate Change, Agriculture, and Livelihoods in Lebanon: Consolidated Livelihoods Exercise for Analyzing Resilience”, a report prepared for WFP (2021)

Gleick, P. H. (2014). Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria. Weather, climate, and society, 6(3), 331-340.

Higel, L. (2016). Iraq's displacement Crisis: security and protection. Minority Rights Group.

Hussein, H. (2018). Lifting the veil: Unpacking the discourse of water scarcity in Jordan. Environmental science & policy, 89, 385-392.

IPCC, "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis," Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2021).

Ipek, P. (2017). Oil and intra-state conflict in Iraq and Syria: sub-state actors and challenges for Turkey's energy security. Middle Eastern Studies, 53(3), 406-419.

Kibaroglu, A. (2021). Building a regime for the waters of the Euphrates-Tigris river basin. Brill.

MoE, “Good Practices for Developing Lebanon’s National Adaptation Plan.” PlanAdapt, December 2023. https://www.plan-adapt.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/lebanon-2023-good-practices-for-developing-lebanon-nap.pdf.

NASA, "Middle East Climate Studies: Precipitation and Temperature Trends," 2020.

Policy brief. “Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, Conflict, and Displacement in the Arab States Region.” United Nations Development Programme, 2023.

Seven, Ü. (2022). Armed conflict, violence, and the decision to migrate: explaining the determinants of displacement in Syria. Migration and Development, 11(3), 1029-1045.

Ward, C., & Ruckstuhl, S. (2017). Water scarcity, climate change and conflict in the Middle East: securing livelihoods, building peace. Bloomsbury Publishing.

Ward, C., Ruckstuhl, S., & Learmont, I. (2023). The History of Water in the Land Once Called Palestine: Scarcity, Conflict and Loss in Middle East Water Resources. Bloomsbury Publishing.

World Bank Group, "Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Middle East and North Africa," 2020.

WFP, “Iraq: World Food Programme.” UN World Food Programme, 2024. https://www.wfp.org/countries/iraq.

WFP, “Lebanon: World Food Programme.” UN World Food Programme, 2024. https://www.wfp.org/countries/lebanon.

WFP, “Syria: World Food Programme.” UN World Food Programme, 2024. https://www.wfp.org/emergencies/syria-emergency.

UN Iraq, “National Strategy for the Protection and Improvement of the Environment in Iraq in Iraq.” United Nations, September 19, 2024. https://www.google.com/url?q=https://iraq.un.org/en/279000-national-strategy-protection-and-improvement-environment-iraq&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1729139162164426&usg=AOvVaw052GKRowT_qFshGbL8eEt7.

UNCDD, “Land Degradation Neutrality Target Setting Programme Final Country Report.” UNCDD, March 2020. https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/ldn_targets/2020-08/Syria%20LDN%20TSP%20Final%20Report%20%28English%29.pdf.

UNDP, “Climate change, environmental degradation, conflict, and displacement in the Arab States region policy brief,” 2023.

UNDP, “Iraq Takes Center Stage and Makes Its Mark at the UN Climate Change Conference.” UNDP, December 3, 2023. https://www.undp.org/iraq/press-releases/iraq-takes-center-stage-and-makes-its-mark-un-climate-change-conference.

UNFCCC, "Middle East and North Africa Climate Action Report," 2019.