Asymmetric Impact of Insecurity on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria

Usman, Gana and Umar Isah, Yahaya and Muhammad, Umar Farouq (2024): Asymmetric Impact of Insecurity on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria. Published in: Confluence Journal of Economics and Allied Sciences , Vol. 7, No. 1 (30 July 2024): pp. 13-26.

Abstract

This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of insecurity on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. It used non-linear autoregressive distributed Lag model to show effect of insecurity proxied by terrorism index and crime rate on agricultural productivity proxied agriculture share of gross domestic product. Quarterly time series data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria, Institute for Economic and Peace and World Development Indicators for the period 2009Q1 to 2022Q4. Major findings revealed significant long and short run asymmetric impact of terrorism on agricultural productivity, as increase and decrease in terrorism and crime rate in Nigeria cause disproportionate change in agricultural productivity. The paper concludes that insecurity is a major determinant of agricultural productivity in Nigeria and recommends in favor of the need to re-invest in the security sector especially in rural communities of Nigeria where impact of insurgencies and other forms of terrorism are prevalent. This will help reduce the effect of terrorism on agricultural productivity in food producing communities, in addition to helping communities affected by terrorism to revive their interests in agriculture.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Agricultural productivity, insecurity, terrorism, crime rate, NARDL
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q0 - General; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q0 - General > Q01 - Sustainable Development; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics

References

Adebisi, T & Okotie, S. (2017). The restructuring of food systems: Trends, research and policy issues. Agriculture and Human Values, 16, 109-116. Adebiyi, D., & Oladele, E. (2015). Empirical investigation of the relationship between corruption and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115-135. Adewale F. B. (2011). Crowding out effect of corruption in Nigeria. Noble International Journal of Economic and Financial Research, 3(6), 71-77. Babajide, W. A., & Badru, F. A. (2022). The impact of insecurity on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Retrieved from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357925096. Eneji, M. A., Babagario, B., & Agri, G. E. (2019). The effects of insecurity on agricultural productivity in Nigeria: The case study of Gombe State Sumerianz Journal of Business Management and Marketing, 2(6), 59-69. Fadare, O., Akerele, D., Mavrotas, G. & Ogunniyi, A. (2019). Effect of conflict and food price shocks on calorie intake and acute malnutrition in Nigeria: A micro-panel data analysis. Paper presented at the 93rd Annual Conference of the Agricultural Economics Society, University of Warwick, England 15 - 17 April 2019. Retrieved from https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aesc19:289676. Gollin, D., Lagakos, D., & Waugh, M., E. (2013). The agricultural productivity gap. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, 19628. Ibrahim, K. A., Salihu, A., Yakubu, A., Isah, Y. U., & Isah, M. Y. (2024). Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Reserve Accumulation on Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of Arid Zone Economy, 3(1), 50-59. Illesanmi, O., & Odefadehan, T. C. (2022). The impact of insecurity on agricultural food loss in Nigeria. CJSMS, 7(1), https://doi.org/10.26772/CJSMS2022070104. International Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Invention, 1, 251-257. Louis, S. N., & Hiikyaa, A. N. (2018). Effect of insecurity on economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 2(2), 69-77. Mmaobika, A. O., & Marcus, O. B. (2022). Effect of public security situation on agriculture and transportation in Nigeria. International Journal of Scientific Development and Research (IJSDR), 7(8), 253-257. Musa, F., & Muhammed, M. (2020). Investigating the relationship between corruption, poverty and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 12(1), 90-119. Nwachukwu, I. (2008). Planning and evaluation of agricultural and rural development project. Lambhouse publishers, 1-6. Olagunju, F. I., Oke, J. T. O. Babatunde, R. O and Ajiboye, A. (2020). Determinants of food insecurity in Ogbomoso metropolis of Oyo State, Nigeria. PAT, 8(1), 111-124. Omorogbe O, Jelena Z, Fatima A (2014) The role of agricultural development in the economic growth of Nigeria. European Scientific Journal, 10(4). Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and Usman, G. (2018). Public Sector Financing and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Bingham Journal of Economics and Allied Studies (BJEAS), 1(2), 1-13. Verter, N. (2019). Food Security and Trade in Food Products in Nigeria. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 8(3), 527-542, DOI:10.14207/ejsd.2019.v8n3p527. Wafure, G. O., Gana, U., Shuaib, M. S., & Murtala, I. (2023). Domestic debt outstanding and economic growth: a linear or nonlinear evidence in Nigeria. International Journal of Global Economic Light (JGEL), 9(6). Yahaya, U. I., Muftahu, O., & Aliyu, I. (2021). Monetary Policy and Stock Market Prices in Nigeria. LAFIA Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 6(1), 177-194.