Impact de Trump 2.0 sur l'Afrique subsaharienne

Kohnert, Dirk (2025): Impact de Trump 2.0 sur l'Afrique subsaharienne.

Abstract

As Trump takes aim at global norms and institutions, the question of what parts of the post-Cold War order can be saved, and for whom, needs urgent attention. Moving away from these positions will require major changes. Trump 2.0 has generated optimism in Africa. South Africa, in particular, was initially optimistic. But later, bilateral relations with South Africa deteriorated as the Trump administration, including his economic advisor, South African-born Elon Musk, openly sided with the white SA establishment, at least for the next four years. Prospects for democratic transitions were also dashed, as Trump did not care about democratising sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but rather supported African autocracies, such as in Biya's Cameroon, Gnassingbé's Togo, and the Central African Republic and Ivory Coast. Trump's intention to dismantle USAid threw all its contractors into disarray. Fear, pain and hunger were the terrible consequences of US funding cuts, for example in Kenya and war-torn Sudan. The US was the largest ODA donor in SSA. In fiscal year 2023/2024, the US had donated nearly $3.7 billion. Jihadism in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and beyond is likely to intensify and spread. The isolationist US Africa policy under Trump could further reduce Western influence. Trump's trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs and withdrawal from multilateral agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), have affected developing countries' access to the US market. This is particularly true in SSA, which relies heavily on exports of commodities, textiles and manufactured goods to the US market. The imposition of tariffs on steel, aluminium and other manufactured goods further increased the cost of exports from these countries, leading to reduced competitiveness and a decline in trade volumes. African countries benefiting from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) have seen their benefits diminish, as the Trump administration has de-prioritised AGOA.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Impact of Trump 2.0 on Sub-Saharan Africa
• Language: French
• Keywords: Gouvernement Trump; Afrique subsaharienne; politique commerciale; politique douanière; nationalisme; protectionnisme; terres rares; antiterrorisme; Afrique du Sud; RD Congo; Namibie; Somalie
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F52 - National Security ; Economic Nationalism; F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization; H - Public Economics > H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue > H21 - Efficiency ; Optimal Taxation; P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P16 - Political Economy; P - Economic Systems > P5 - Comparative Economic Systems > P52 - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z13 - Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology ; Social and Economic Stratification

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