Transition énergétique, durabilité et réduction des émissions en Tunisie : une analyse empirique par le modèle ardl

amayed, Yasser (2025): Transition énergétique, durabilité et réduction des émissions en Tunisie : une analyse empirique par le modèle ardl.

Abstract

Résumé : La transition énergétique est un enjeu stratégique pour la Tunisie, confrontée à une forte dépendance aux énergies fossiles et à la nécessité de réduire ses émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES). Cette étude analyse l’impact des politiques énergétiques sur les émissions de CO₂ et la durabilité économique à l’aide d’un modèle ARDL. Les résultats révèlent qu’à court terme, la croissance économique augmente les émissions de CO₂, traduisant une forte dépendance aux combustibles fossiles. À long terme, une hausse de la consommation d’énergies renouvelables réduit significativement ces émissions, tandis que la consommation énergétique globale reste le principal facteur d’augmentation des GES. Ces observations soulignent l’urgence d’accélérer la diversification du mix énergétique, d’investir dans des infrastructures durables et de mettre en place des réformes institutionnelles pour une transition énergétique efficace et durable.

Abstract : The energy transition constitutes a strategic issue for Tunisia, which faces a considerable reliance on fossil fuels and the necessity to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study utilises an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyse the impact of energy policies on CO₂ emissions and economic sustainability. The findings indicate that in the short term, economic growth is associated with an increase in CO₂ emissions, reflecting a significant reliance on fossil fuels. However, in the long term, an increase in the consumption of renewable energy has been shown to have a significant effect in reducing CO2 emissions, although overall energy consumption remains the main driver of GHG emissions. These observations underscore the pressing need for the urgent acceleration of the diversification of the energy mix, the investment in sustainable infrastructure, and the implementation of institutional reforms for an efficient and sustainable energy transition.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Energy transition, sustainability and emission reduction in Tunisia: an empirical analysis using the ardl model
• Language: French
• Keywords: Mots clés : Transition énergétique, Tunisie, émissions de CO₂, énergies renouvelables, développement durable, modèle ardl. Key words: Energy transition, Tunisia, CO₂ emissions, renewable energy, sustainable development, , ARDL model.
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics

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