Belgium's import and export dependence on non-EU countries

Dumont, Michel and Michel, Bernhard and Rayp, Glenn (2024): Belgium's import and export dependence on non-EU countries.

Abstract

Various crises as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions have reduced trust in the international supply of goods. To inform policy in this context, we propose a methodology to determine for which goods Belgium’s imports and exports are highly concentrated among a limited number of non-EU countries, whether these goods are strategic and whether the dependence is persistent. We also look at indirect dependence within global supply chains and estimate the impact of potential disruptions on the Belgian economy. Belgium's import and export dependence on non-EU countries has remained fairly constant during the years 2014-2023. We find that the importance of the United States as a trading partner has decreased while that of China has increased. In addition, Belgium’s indirect dependence on non-EU countries turns out to be substantial, for both imports and exports. According to our results, the loss in activity due to a disruption in the imports of strategic goods with strong and persistent dependence on non-EU countries would amount to 2% of Belgian manufacturing value added. For disruption in exports, this would be 0.5%.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: imports and exports, global supply chains, non-EU dependence, strategic goods
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C67 - Input-Output Models; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F23 - Multinational Firms ; International Business; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F52 - National Security ; Economic Nationalism; F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization > F68 - Policy; L - Industrial Organization > L2 - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior > L23 - Organization of Production; L - Industrial Organization > L5 - Regulation and Industrial Policy > L52 - Industrial Policy ; Sectoral Planning Methods

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