Transitory minerals fluctuations and the macroeconomy

Raputsoane, Leroi (2025): Transitory minerals fluctuations and the macroeconomy.

Abstract

This paper analyses the transitory relationship between minerals fluctuations and the macroeconomy in South Africa. This was achieved by isolating the cycle component of output of the minerals industry, together with output of disaggregated minerals and comparing their fluctuations with the cycle component of aggregate, or economy wide, output. The results show an insignificant, and predominantly countercyclical, relationship between aggregate output and output of Mining at transitory, or short term, periodicities. The results further show a positive, or procyclical, relationship between aggregate output and output of Chromium, Nickel, Other metals and quarrying, a mixed, and predominantly acyclical, relationship between aggregate output and output of Iron ore and Manganese, while they also show a negative, or countercyclical, relationship between aggregate, or economy wide, output and output of Coal, Copper, PGMs, Gold, Diamonds and Other non metals. The paper recommends a comprehensive determination of the temporal relationship between the minerals industry and various macroeconomic indicators to inform targeted policy decision making, where appropriate.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Minerals fluctuations, Minerals industry, Economic cycles
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General; D - Microeconomics > D2 - Production and Organizations > D20 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E20 - General; L - Industrial Organization > L7 - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction > L72 - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources

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