Violence and homicides in rural areas: An analysis of the homicide differential between rural and urban municipalities in Brazil

Nogueira, Lauro and Rebouças de Souza, Nathanael Andray and Rodrigues, Fábio Lúcio and Gomes de Souza, Helson (2025): Violence and homicides in rural areas: An analysis of the homicide differential between rural and urban municipalities in Brazil.

Abstract

This study investigated the impacts of water scarcity and/or periods of extreme drought on homicide rates in Brazilian municipalities, particularly rural ones. Using a survey of 769,774 data points that combined climate information, socioeconomic data of victims, homicide rates, and municipal socioeconomic variables as controls, between 2002 and 2020. The study also outlined a profile of homicide victims in rural municipalities for a deeper understanding of the issue. The results show that water scarcity and/or periods of extreme drought increase firearm homicide rates in rural municipalities of Brazil, with higher homicide rates in the region leading to greater observed effects. In summary, there are indications of a phenomenon of crime interiorization, especially in predominantly rural municipalities.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Violence in Rural Areas. Homicide Rates. Crime Interiorization. Rural Municipalities.
• Subjects: I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics

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