Rushing to the altar? Same-sex marriages when rights feel at risk

Maciel, Mateus and Zuchowski, David and Parente, Sara (2025): Rushing to the altar? Same-sex marriages when rights feel at risk.

Abstract

The literature on same-sex marriage has primarily focused on the effects of legal recognition, overlooking the factors that influence marriage decisions among samesex couples. This study provides novel evidence on the role of political context by analyzing how the election of a homophobic leader affects these decisions. Using the case of Brazil, we examine the effect of revealed local support for the openly homophobic Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential elections on same-sex marriage dynamics. To estimate this effect, we apply a difference-indifferences approach with varying treatment intensity. The results show a significant increase in same-sex marriages in municipalities with higher support for Bolsonaro during the period between the election and the start of his mandate. These findings suggest that perceived threats of rights restrictions can play a critical role in shaping personal decisions among minority groups, even in the absence of legal changes.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: homophobia, political threat, sexual minority, LGBT, same-sex marriages
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics > D10 - General; D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J12 - Marriage ; Marital Dissolution ; Family Structure ; Domestic Abuse

References

Ajzenman, N., Cavalcanti, T. and Da Mata, D. (2023). More than words: Leaders’ speech and risky behavior during a pandemic. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 15 (3), 351–371.

Aksoy, C. G., Carpenter, C. S. and Frank, J. (2018). Sexual orientation and earnings: New evidence from the United Kingdom. ILR Review, 71 (1), 242–272.

Aksoy, C. G., Carpenter, C. S., Frank, J. and Huffman, M. L. (2019). Gay glass ceilings: Sexual orientation and workplace authority in the UK. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 159, 167–180.

Aksoy, C. G., Carpenter, C. S., Haas, R. D. and Tran, K. D. (2020). Do laws shape attitudes? Evidence from same-sex relationship recognition policies in Europe. European Economic Review, 124, 103399.

Badgett, L., Waaldijk, K. and van der Meulen Rodgers, Y. (2019). The relationship between LGBT inclusion and economic development: Macro-level evidence. World Development, 120, 1–14.

Badgett, M. V. L., Carpenter, C. S., Lee, M. J. and Sansone, D. (2025). A review of the effects of legal access to same-sex marriage. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 44 (1), 266–294.

Barros, L. and Silva, M. S. (2025). Economic shocks, gender, and populism: Evidence from Brazil. Journal of Development Economics, 174, 103412.

BBC News Brasil (2021). O que esperar de André Mendonça no STF após aprovação no Senado. Disponível em: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-59389598 (Acesso em: 28 de maio de 2025).

Black, D. A., Sanders, S. G. and Taylor, L. J. (2007). The economics of lesbian and gay families. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21 (2), 53–70.

Brown, C., Contreras, D. and Schmidt, L. (2019). Sexual orientation and labor force participation: findings from Chile and Uruguay. Feminist Economics, 25 (2), 90–115.

Bursztyn, L., Egorov, G. and Fiorin, S. (2020). From extreme to mainstream: The erosion of social norms. American Economic Review, 110 (11), 3522–3548.

Conselho Nacional de Justiça (2013). Resolução nº 175/2013: Dispõe sobre a habilitação, celebração de casamento civil, ou de conversão de união estável em casamento, entre pessoas do mesmo sexo.

Câmara dos Deputados (2007). Projeto de Lei nº 580/2007: Altera a Lei nº 10.406, de 10 de janeiro de 2002 – Código Civil, para dispor sobre o contrato civil de união homoafetiva.

Drydakis, N. (2022a). Sexual orientation and earnings: A meta-analysis 2012–2020. Journal of Population Economics, 35, 409–440.

Drydakis, N. (2022b). Sexual orientation discrimination in the labor market against gay men. Review of Economics of the Household, 20 (3), 1027–1058.

El País (2018). Casamentos homossexuais como resistência a Bolsonaro. Disponível em: https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2018/11/14/politica/1542216213_918450.html (Acesso em: 28 de maio de 2025).

Exame (2019). Número de casamentos LGBT cresceu 340% após eleição de Bolsonaro. Disponível em: https://exame.com/brasil/casamento-lgbt-salta-60-em-2018-novembro-e-dezembro-lideram-registros/ (Acesso em: 28 de maio de 2025).

Graves, J. and Trond, C. (2024). Employment discrimination and labor market protections for sexual minorities in Brazil. Labour Economics, 90, 102548.

Gutierrez, E. and Rubli, A. (2024). LGBT+ persons and homophobia prevalence across job sectors: Survey evidence from Mexico. Labour Economics, 87, 102500.

Los Angeles Times (2018). Fearful that the president will change the law, same-sex couples in Brazil rush to the altar. Disponível em: https://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-brazil-same-sex-marriage-20181214-story.html (Acesso em: 28 de maio de 2025).

Marcén, M. and Morales, M. (2022). The effect of same-sex marriage legalization on interstate migration in the USA. Journal of Population Economics, 35 (2), 441–469.

NBC News (2018). Gay Brazilians rush to wed before ‘homophobic’ president-elect takes office. Disponível em: https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/gay-brazilians-rush-wed-homophobic-president-elect-takes-office-n951066 (Acesso em: 28 de maio de 2025).

Nettuno, L. (2024). Gender identity, labor market outcomes, and socioeconomic status: Evidence from Chile. Labour Economics, 87, 102487.

Plug, E. and Berkhout, P. (2004). Effects of sexual preferences on earnings in the Netherlands. Journal of Population Economics, 17, 117–131.

Sansone, D. (2019). Pink work: Same-sex marriage, employment and discrimination. Journal of Public Economics, 180, 104086.

Senado Federal (2011). Projeto de Lei do Senado nº 612/2011: Altera os arts. 1.723 e 1.726 do Código Civil, para permitir o reconhecimento legal da união estável entre pessoas do mesmo sexo.

Tampellini, J. (2024). Latin American pride: Labor market outcomes of sexual minorities in Brazil. Journal of Development Economics, 167, 103239.

The New York Times (2018). Brazil’s President-Elect Jair Bolsonaro’s Most Controversial Quotes. Disponível em: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/28/world/americas/brazil-president-jair-bolsonaro-quotes.html (Acesso em: 11 de abril de 2025).

Zanoni, W., Hernández, H., Zambrano, O. and Quiroz, G. (2024). Discrimination against lesbian and gay job seekers: An artefactual field experiment in urban Ecuador. Labour Economics, 88, 102531.