Risk Assesment of Companies and Banks Exposed to the German Automotive Industry in a Small Open Economy

Ortl, Aljoša and Sajinčič, Miha (2025): Risk Assesment of Companies and Banks Exposed to the German Automotive Industry in a Small Open Economy. Published in: Bank of Slovenia, Discussion Papers No. August 2025 (4 August 2025)

Abstract

Recent concerns about the German automotive slowdown and related US tariffs pose risks for small open economies. We focus on Slovenian companies integrated into these supply chains. Using comprehensive data-intensive analysis, we define “companies at risk” as companies operating in the automotive sector with at least 10% of revenues from German trade receivables. They account for approximately 2% of total bank exposures, 5.3% of value added, and 5% of operating revenues. At the municipal level, several clusters with higher concentrations of such firms are identified. To address data limitations and the arbitrariness of our classification, we conduct robustness checks. Using input–output tables, we also assess potential spillover effects across supply chains. Our granular company-level approach provides valuable insights for potential policy responses targeting the real economy, banking system, and/or local municipalities.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: German automotive industry; input–output analysis; supply chains; companies at risk; potential risks; risk evaluation for banks; credit and economic risk assessment
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G32 - Financing Policy ; Financial Risk and Risk Management ; Capital and Ownership Structure ; Value of Firms ; Goodwill; L - Industrial Organization > L6 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing > L62 - Automobiles ; Other Transportation Equipment ; Related Parts and Equipment

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