Dividende démographique ou désastre démographique pour l'Afrique ? Un continent à la croisée des chemins

Kohnert, Dirk (2025): Dividende démographique ou désastre démographique pour l'Afrique ? Un continent à la croisée des chemins.

Abstract

As the world’s youngest region, Africa has the potential to reap a significant demographic dividend, which could boost economic growth, drive innovation, and reshape global labour markets. As the continent progresses through its demographic transition, changes in age distribution, workforce composition and dependency ratios will have wide-reaching consequences for economic growth, social services and development planning. While demographic trends offer an unprecedented opportunity, policy and governance will ultimately determine whether this potential is realised. Supporting Africa’s demographic journey is not only a matter of global equity, but also in the interest of achieving long-term stability and prosperity. In Africa, the proportion of the working-age population to the total population is still growing and will peak shortly after 2070. However, Africa’s peak worker-to-dependent ratio will be low, which translates into relatively modest potential for rapid economic growth. With few exceptions, average economic growth rates in Africa are too slow and population growth rates too high to enable the continent to rapidly reduce poverty or raise average incomes. Although fertility rates and dependency ratios in Africa remain high, they have begun to decline. According to UN projections, these rates will continue to fall in the coming decades, meaning that by the mid-21st century, the ratio of the working-age population to the dependent population will be higher than in Asia, Europe and North America. Africa has considerable potential to benefit from a demographic dividend. Whether, when and to what extent this occurs hinges on policies and institutions in key areas such as macroeconomic management, human capital, trade, governance, and labour and capital markets. If African countries can continue to build on their hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11–15% of gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 2030, reducing the number of people living in poverty by 40–60 million. The continent is set to become a population superpower. Its proportion of the world's population is increasing in an unprecedented manner, especially relative to Europe, and its inhabitants are younger than ever. The youth bulge heading Africa's way is real and, in the next 30 years, it will present African states with economic, social, and political problems the likes of which the world has never witnessed before. This demographic surge is neither a catastrophe nor a boon; it is a wicked problem.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Africa's Demographic Dividend or Demographic Disaster? A Continent at a Crossroads
• Language: French
• Keywords: Démographie; Afrique subsaharienne; croissance économique; croissance démographique; pauvreté; Nigeria; Éthiopie; RD Congo
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O15 - Human Resources ; Human Development ; Income Distribution ; Migration; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O17 - Formal and Informal Sectors ; Shadow Economy ; Institutional Arrangements; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z13 - Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology ; Social and Economic Stratification

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