Artificially created scarcity: How AI turns abundance into shortage

Ayoki, Milton (2025): Artificially created scarcity: How AI turns abundance into shortage.

Abstract

The diffusion of general-purpose artificial intelligence (AI) systems is collapsing the marginal cost of cognition, coordination, and capital formation. This abundance of intelligence is simultaneously re-pricing the three residual scarcities that still constrain human welfare: atmospheric carbon space, human labor hours, and irreversible time. Using a unified production–climate–welfare model, we show that (i) AI accelerates decarbonization by driving the cost curve of clean technologies below that of fossil fuels; (ii) labor markets bifurcate into a vanishing low-skill wage sector and an expanding high-skill rent sector, generating a transfer problem that can only be solved by AI dividends; and (iii) the option value of future consumption rises as AI compresses the calendar time needed to unlock large-scale decarbonization, longevity, and existential-risk mitigation. The conjunction of these effects drives the Ramsey rule for optimal climate policy to its mathematical limit: the social discount rate (SDR) must converge to zero. We provide empirical calibration using the latest IPCC scenarios, large-language-model energy-intensity data, and labor-share forecasts through 2100. A zero SDR reconciles inter-generational equity with intra-generational efficiency and unlocks a portfolio of “long-horizon public goods” (LHPGs)—from atmospheric restoration to asteroid defense—that markets at positive discount rates chronically under-supply.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Artificial intelligence, abundance; scarcity; social discount rate; zero discounting; inter-generational equity; labor-market bifurcation; AI dividend; long-horizon public goods; existential risk, decarbonization; marginal cost of cognition; Ramsey rule; option value of time.
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D6 - Welfare Economics > D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity; H - Public Economics > H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue > H23 - Externalities ; Redistributive Effects ; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences ; Diffusion Processes; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q55 - Technological Innovation

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