L’impact des tensions géopolitiques et les trajectoires divergentes des politiques monétaires

AUGA, Esdras (2025): L’impact des tensions géopolitiques et les trajectoires divergentes des politiques monétaires.

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of geopolitical tensions on central bank monetary Policy responses over the period 2010-2024. Using an econometric Framework, the study reveals That such tensions exert both upward and downward pressures on Policy rates, as central Banks react to external shocks in a context of increasing global uncertainty. These responses are interpreted either as preventive measures against inflationary risks or as cautious signaling amid volatility. Howerver, the results highlight a significant heterogeneity in monetary Policy reactions across countries, reflecting divergent trajectories shaped by distinct institutional, economic, and political Framework. White the explanatory power of the model remains moderate, the findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and international institutions facing an increasingly unstable geopolitical environment.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The impact of geopolitical tensions and the divergent paths of monetary policies
• Language: French
• Keywords: Geopolitical tensions, divergent trajectories, monetary policy, external shocks, rising uncertainty, the global economy
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F44 - International Business Cycles; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions

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