Trade Concentration and the Politics of Economic Development in Zimbabwe’s Post-GNU Era (2014–2020)

Mufandaedza, Dhibhora (2024): Trade Concentration and the Politics of Economic Development in Zimbabwe’s Post-GNU Era (2014–2020).

Abstract

This paper provides an in-depth political economy of development analysis of Zimbabwe’s trade concentration between 2014 and 2020, a period corresponding to the post-Government of National Unity (GNU) era and the emergence of the so-called “New Dispensation.” Using a political economy lens, the study explores market, product, and industry concentration in trade flows, highlighting the structural weaknesses of Zimbabwe’s trade regime under the “New Dispensation.” Drawing on secondary data and descriptive analysis, the paper finds that Zimbabwe’s trade remained highly concentrated in a few products and markets, with persistent trade deficits and limited industrial diversification. The country’s trade partners are similarly concentrated, with South Africa, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and China absorbing most of Zimbabwe’s exports and supplying most imports. These trends reflect a continued dependence on primary commodity exports and a lack of structural transformation despite policy rhetoric about diversification and industrialization. The paper argues that the political economy of Zimbabwe’s post-GNU period which is characterized by elite capture, policy inconsistency, and re-engagement diplomacy has reproduced dependency and undermined developmental trade outcomes.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Dependency theory, export concentration, industrial policy, political economy, trade Structure, Zimbabwe
• Subjects: P - Economic Systems > P3 - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions > P33 - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid; P - Economic Systems > P4 - Other Economic Systems > P48 - Political Economy ; Legal Institutions ; Property Rights ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Regional Studies

References

Afonso, A., Alves, J., Menescal, L., & Monteiro, S. (2024). Determinants of trade partner concentration: An analysis for European countries (No. 11481). CESifo Working Paper. https://www.cesifo.org/en/publikationen/2024/working-paper/determinants-trade-partner-concentration-analysis-european-countries

Amin, S. (1976). Unequal development: An essay on the social formations of peripheral capitalism (B. Pearce, Trans.). Monthly Review Press. https://monthlyreview.org/product/unequal-development

Babbie, E. (2021). The practice of social research (15th ed.). Cengage Learning. https://doi.org/10.2307/2092545

Chang, H.-J. (2002). Kicking away the ladder: Development strategy in historical perspective. Anthem Press. https://doi.org/10.7135/UPO9781843311730

Chiukira, L. (2021). Dependency and trade patterns in postcolonial African economies: Revisiting the case of Zimbabwe. Journal of African Political Economy, 48(2), 105–124. https://doi.org/10.1080/03056244.2021.1892749

Clift, B. (2021). The political economy of capitalist democracies. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198849668.001.0001

Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI). (2018). Manufacturing Sector Survey Report 2018. Harare: CZI.

Creswell, J. W., & Creswell, J. D. (2018). Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches (5th ed.). Sage Publications. https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/research-design/book255675

Evans, P. (1995). Embedded autonomy: States and industrial transformation. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400821723

Fine, B. (2013). Economics: Unfit for purpose: Critical essays on rethinking economics. Pluto Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt183p07s

Flick, U. (2018). An introduction to qualitative research (6th ed.). Sage Publications. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781529716641

Gwanongodza, T. (2020). The structure of Zimbabwe’s trade and the political economy of dependency. Zimbabwe Economic Policy Review, 2(1), 45–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/26323256.2020.1726538

Mkodzongi, G. (2022). Resource nationalism and elite accumulation in post-Mugabe Zimbabwe. Review of African Political Economy, 49(173), 89–108. https://doi.org/10.1080/03056244.2022.2030360

Moyo, S. (2019). Extractivism, accumulation and resistance in Zimbabwe. In B. Campbell & J. Heyer (Eds.), The political economy of natural resource governance in Africa (pp. 123–145). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198846162.003.0006

Mutanda, D. (2023). The military and political transitions in Zimbabwe: From Mugabe to Mnangagwa. African Journal of Political Science, 18(1), 45–62. https://doi.org/10.1093/afjpo/laq043

Ndakaripa, M. (2020a). Politics, policy inconsistency, and economic decline in Zimbabwe. Journal of African Political Economy, 47(3), 215–233. https://doi.org/10.1080/03056244.2020.1791842

Ndakaripa, M. (2020b). “Zimbabwe is open for business”: Aspects of post-Mugabe economic diplomacy. South African Journal of International Affairs, 27(3), 363–389. https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2020.1826355

Ndlovu-Gatsheni, S. J., & Ruhanya, P. (2020a). The post-Mugabe Zimbabwe: The rise of the securocratic state. SAPES Books.

Ndlovu-Gatsheni, S. J., & Ruhanya, P. (2020b). The authoritarian nationalist state and the politics of re-engagement in Zimbabwe. African Affairs, 119(475), 348–370. https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adaa024

Raftopoulos, B. (2014a). The state in crisis: Authoritarian nationalism, selective citizenship and distortions of democracy in Zimbabwe. African Development, 39(3), 19–43. https://www.jstor.org/stable/90016020

Raftopoulos, B. (2014b). Zimbabwe’s political economy in the post-GNU period: Continuity and change. Review of African Political Economy, 41(S1), S1–S12. https://doi.org/10.1080/03056244.2014.987614

Rodney, W. (1972). How Europe underdeveloped Africa. Bogle-L’Ouverture Publications. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315631014

Rwodzi, M. (2019). Political polarization in Zimbabwe after the 2018 elections. Journal of African Elections, 18(2), 112–130. https://doi.org/10.20940/JAE/2019/v18i2a6

Shonhe, T. (2020). The political economy of command agriculture in Zimbabwe: A case of policy failure and elite capture. Zimbabwe Economic Policy Analysis and Research Unit (ZEPARU) Working Paper. https://www.zeparu.co.zw/publications

Tshuma, L. (2018). The end of the 1964 Zimbabwe–South Africa trade agreement: Implications for regional trade. Journal of Southern African Studies, 44(4), 789–805. https://doi.org/10.1080/03057070.2018.1492282

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2022). Handbook of statistics 2022: International trade in goods and services. United Nations. https://unctad.org/publication/handbook-statistics-2022

Wade, R. H. (2018). The developmental state: Dead or alive? Development and Change, 49(2), 518–546. https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12381

Yin, R. K. (2018). Case study research and applications: Design and methods (6th ed.). Sage Publications. https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/case-study-research-and-applications/book250150

ZIMSTAT. (2021). Zimbabwe National Trade Statistics. Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency. https://www.zimstat.co.zw