Election and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Kim, Dongyoung and Kim, Young-Il and Rho, Haedong (2025): Election and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

Abstract

This paper uses daily Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the causal effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a highly competitive race whose outcome resolved lingering uncertainty on election day, on mental-health and life-satisfaction outcomes through a regression discontinuity design. Following the resolution of electoral uncertainty on election day, we find a sharp and persistent post-election decline in subjective well-being, concentrated among female, non-White, urban, and more-educated respondents. These findings reveal an expected-outcome shock, showing that political polarization itself, not electoral surprise, can act as a chronic psychological stressor.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Election, Subjective Well-Being, Mental Health, Life Satisfaction
• Subjects: H - Public Economics > H0 - General > H00 - General; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I31 - General Welfare, Well-Being

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