Emergent Dynamical Spatial Boundaries in Emergency Medical Services: A Navier-Stokes Framework from First Principles

Kikuchi, Tatsuru (2025): Emergent Dynamical Spatial Boundaries in Emergency Medical Services: A Navier-Stokes Framework from First Principles.

Abstract

Emergency medical services (EMS) response times are critical determinants of patient survival, yet existing approaches to spatial coverage analysis rely on discrete distance buffers or ad-hoc geographic information system (GIS) isochrones without theoretical foundation. This paper derives continuous spatial boundaries for emergency response from first principles using fluid dynamics (Navier-Stokes equations), demonstrating that response effectiveness decays exponentially with time: $\tau(t) = \tau_0 \exp(-\kappa t)$, where $\tau_0$ is baseline effectiveness and $\kappa$ is the temporal decay rate. Using 10,000 simulated emergency incidents from the National Emergency Medical Services Information System (NEMSIS), I estimate decay parameters and calculate critical boundaries $d^*$ where response effectiveness falls below policy-relevant thresholds. The framework reveals substantial demographic heterogeneity: elderly populations (85+) experience 8.40-minute average response times versus 7.83 minutes for younger adults (18-44), with 33.6\% of poor-access incidents affecting elderly populations despite representing 5.2\% of the sample. Non-parametric kernel regression validation confirms exponential decay is appropriate (mean squared error 8-12 times smaller than parametric), while traditional difference-in-differences analysis validates treatment effect existence (DiD coefficient = -1.35 minutes, $p < 0.001$). The analysis identifies vulnerable populations—elderly, rural, and low-income communities—facing systematically longer response times, informing optimal EMS station placement and resource allocation to reduce health disparities.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Emergency Medical Services, Spatial Boundaries, Response Time, Demographic Heterogeneity, Navier-Stokes Equations, Continuous Functional Framework, Non-Parametric Estimation
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C21 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models ; Quantile Regressions; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy ; Regulation ; Public Health; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R5 - Regional Government Analysis > R53 - Public Facility Location Analysis ; Public Investment and Capital Stock

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