Identifying the Shocks also Identifies the Constants: Implications for VAR analysis

Mountford, Andrew (2025): Identifying the Shocks also Identifies the Constants: Implications for VAR analysis.

Abstract

Restrictions on the contemporaneous effects matrix used to identify fundamental shocks in a structural VAR, also determine the mapping from the structural constant terms to the reduced form constant terms. In some models one will have priors about these structural constant terms and these should therefore be included in a Bayesian estimation procedure. We illustrate the significance of this using a standard 3 variable VAR estimated in Baumeister and Hamilton (2018). We show that imposing priors over the structural constant terms can lead to a more intuitive estimated monetary policy rule and a larger role for monetary policy in describing the evolution of the data, particularly for inflation.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Vector Autoregressions, Historical Decompositions, Monetary Policy
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E50 - General

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