Fertility responses to tropical cyclones: Causal evidence and mechanisms

Nguyen, Ha and Mitrou, Francis (2025): Fertility responses to tropical cyclones: Causal evidence and mechanisms. Published in: Journal of Health Economics , Vol. C, No. 140 (December 2025): p. 103083.

Abstract

In light of growing concerns over escalating natural disaster risks and persistently low fertility rates, this paper quantifies the causal impacts of tropical cyclones and identifies the pathways through which they influence childbearing decisions among Australians of reproductive age. Using an individual fixed effects model and exogenous variation in cyclone exposure, we find a robust and substantial decline in fertility, occurring only after the most severe category 5 cyclones, with the effect weakening as distance from the cyclone’s eye increases. We find no evidence of delayed cyclone effects, indicating that the fertility loss attributable to these most severe cyclones is permanent. Our findings are robust to extensive validity checks, including a falsification test and various randomization tests. The fertility decline is most pronounced among younger adults, individuals with lower educational attainment, those childless at baseline, and those lacking prior private health or residential insurance. While physical health, financial constraints, and migration appear unlikely to drive the effect, the evidence points to reduced family formation, increased marital breakdown, child mortality, cyclone-induced home damage, elevated psychological stress, and heightened risk perceptions as plausible mechanisms.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Natural Disasters; Cyclones; Fertility; Marriage; Australia
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J12 - Marriage ; Marital Dissolution ; Family Structure ; Domestic Abuse; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

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