할당관세 정책이 농산물 소매가격에 미치는 인과적 영향

Kim, Youngmi and Jeong, Deokjae (2025): 할당관세 정책이 농산물 소매가격에 미치는 인과적 영향.

Abstract

This study examines the causal effect of Korea's Tariff-Rate Quota on consumer price reduction and stabilization, in contrast to previous foreign studies that focused on the domestic producer price support effects of Tariff-Rate Quotas. Using daily retail price data for 40 agricultural products from 2021 to 2025, this study analyze retail price changes in response to the intensity of tariff reductions using the Local Projection Difference-in-Differences method. The results indicate that while no significant price reduction was observed for leafy and root vegetables, fruits exhibited a causal retail price decline of approximately 0.9% for every one percentage point reduction in tariff rates. This implies that the tariff pass-through rate for fruits is approximately 90%. These findings suggest that when the policy objective is price stabilization, priority consideration should be given to applying Tariff-Rate Quotas to fruits.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The Causal Effects of Tariff-Rate Quota Policies on Agricultural Product Retail Prices
• Language: Korean
• Keywords: Tariff-Rate Quota, Price Stabilization, Local Projection Difference-in-Differences, Tariff Pass-through, Agricultural Trade Policy
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade

References

Abbott, P.C., Paarlberg, P.L., 1998. Tariff rate quotas: Structural and stability impacts in growing markets. Agricultural Economics 19, 257–267.

Adammer, P., 2019. Lpirfs: An R package to estimate impulse response functions by local projections. ¨ The R Journal 11, 421–438.

Amiti, M., Redding, S.J., Weinstein, D.E., 2019. The impact of the 2018 tariffs on prices and welfare. Journal of Economic Perspectives 33, 187–210.

Bach, P., Klaassen, S., Kueck, J., Mattes, M., Spindler, M., 2025. Sensitivity analysis for treatment effects in Difference-in-Differences Models using Riesz Representation. arXiv preprint .

Baek, Y., Hayakawa, K., Tsubota, K., Urata, S., Yamanouchi, K., 2021. Tariff pass-through in wholesaling: Evidence from firm-level data in Japan. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 62, 101164.

Bandara, K., Hyndman, R.J., Bergmeir, C., 2025. MSTL: A seasonal-trend decomposition algorithm for time series with multiple seasonal patterns. International Journal of Operational Research 52, 79–98.

Callaway, B., Goodman-Bacon, A., Sant’Anna, P.H., 2024. Difference-in-Differences with a continuous treatment. Technical Report. National Bureau of Economic Research.

Cavallo, A., Gopinath, G., Neiman, B., Tang, J., 2021. Tariff pass-through at the border and at the store: Evidence from us trade policy. American Economic Review: Insights 3, 19–34.

Cleveland, R.B., Cleveland, W.S., McRae, J.E., Terpenning, I., 1990. STL: A seasonal-trend decomposition. Journal of Official Statistics 6, 3–73.

De Chaisemartin, C., d’Haultfoeuille, X., Pasquier, F., Sow, D., Vazquez-Bare, G., 2022. Difference-indifferences estimators for treatments continuously distributed at every period. arXiv preprint .

Dube, A., Girardi, D., Jorda, O., Taylor, A.M., 2023. A Local Projections approach to Difference-inDifferences Event Studies. Technical Report. National Bureau of Economic Research.

Flaaen, A., Hortac¸su, A., Tintelnot, F., 2020. The production relocation and price effects of US trade policy: The case of washing machines. American Economic Review 110, 2103–2127.

Gardner, J., 2022. Two-stage differences in differences. arXiv preprint .

Goodman-Bacon, A., 2021. Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing. Journal of Econometrics 225, 254–277.

Jang, S.h., 2025. Tariff-Rate Quota implementation: Current status and policy improvement agenda (할 당관세 운용 현황과 개선과제).

Jorda, ` O., Schularick, M., Taylor, A.M., 2015. Betting the house. Journal of International Economics 96, ` S2–S18.

Lee, Y., 2011. An Empirical Study on the effect of the CPI and quota tariff of Korea. The Journal of Korea Research Society for Customs 12, 25–44.

Loginova, D., Portmann, M., Huber, M., 2021. Assessing the effects of seasonal tariff-rate quotas on vegetable prices in Switzerland. Journal of Agricultural Economics 72, 607–627.

Mollins, J., Lumb, R., 2024. Seasonal adjustment of weekly data . Owyang, M.T., Ramey, V.A., Zubairy, S., 2013. Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? Evidence from twentieth-century historical data. American Economic Review 103, 129–34.

Pierce, D.A., Grupe, M.R., Cleveland, W.P., 1984. Seasonal adjustment of the weekly monetary aggregates: A model-based approach. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 2, 260–270.

Roberts, M.J., Schlenker, W., 2013. Identifying supply and demand elasticities of agricultural commodities: Implications for the US ethanol mandate. American Economic Review 103, 2265–2295.

Son, E., Lim, S.S., 2025. Quantifying tariff equivalents of Tariff Rate Quota on grains in Korea. Research on World Agricultural Economy , 1–15.

Song, Y.g., 2023. 2022 Tariff-Rate Quota implementation results and impact analysis (2022년도 할당관세 지원실적 및 효과분석). Ministry of Economy and Finance (기획재정부).

Sun, L., Abraham, S., 2021. Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects. Journal of Econometrics 225, 175–199