پیش بینی نحوه اثرگذاری عوامل مؤثر بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با رویکرد مدل میانگین گیری پویا

Rahimi Kahkashi, Sanaz and Adeli, OmidAli and Maleki, Mohammad Hassan and Roudari, Soheil (2022): پیش بینی نحوه اثرگذاری عوامل مؤثر بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با رویکرد مدل میانگین گیری پویا. Published in: Journal of Econometric Modelling , Vol. 8, No. 2 (15 August 2023): pp. 35-67.

Abstract

One of the most important goals of economic policymakers in every country is to achieve high economic growth. For this purpose, this study aims to identify the most important variables affecting Iran's economic growth in the period of 1360 - 1400 using the dynamic averaging model. The results showed that in Iran's economy, the variables of current government expenditures, tax revenues, income inequality, household consumption expenditures, and domestic investment are the most important variables affecting economic growth. Also, the results showed that the manner and probability of these variables influencing economic growth over time are not constant and are subject to exogenous impulses such as revolution, war, oil price shocks, applied economic policies, structural changes, and sanctions.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Predicting the effect of factors affecting the economic growth of Iran with the approach of dynamic averaging models
• Language: Persian
• Keywords: Economic Growth, Current Government Expenditures, Tax Revenues, TVP-DMA Model
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence

References

Filimonova, I. V., Cherepanova, D. M., Provornaya, I. V., Kozhevin, V. D & Nemov, V. Y. (2020), The dependence of sustainable economic growth on the complex of faxtors in hydrocarbons – exporting countries, Energy Reports, 6 (8): 68 - 73.

Hong, vo. D., Nguyen, T. C & Tran, N. P. The vo A.(2019), What factors Affect income inequality and Economic Growth in Middle - Income countries?. Risk and Financial Management, 12 (1). https://doi.org/103390/jrfm12010040.Growthin

Hajamini, M. (2020), Analyzing the Causal Relationships between Economic Growth, Income Inequality, and Transmission Channels: New Empirical Evidences from Iran, Money and Economy, 15 (3): 313 - 342.

Koop, G & Korobilis, D.(2012), Forecasting Inflation using Dynamic Model Averaging, International Economic Review, 53(3): 867 - 886. Nguyen, A. T. (2018), Determinats affecting economic growth: the case of vietnam. International, Business and Economics, 3 (1): 1 - 11.

Nguyen, H & Darsono, S. The Impacts of Tax Revenue and Investment on the Economic Growth in Southeast Asian Countries. ACCOUNTING and INNESTMENT, 23 (1): 128 - 146.

Soeharjoto, S., Debbie, A. T., Dini, H& Luky, N. (2020), Factors Affecting Economic Java, Commerce & Finance, 6 (1): 155 - 165.

Shabbir, M. Sh., Bashir, M., Abbasi, H. M., Ghulam, Y& Abbasi, B. A. (2021), Effect of domestic and foreign private investment on economic growth of pakistan, Trasnational Corporations Review, 13 (4): 437 - 449.

Teixeira, A. C & Queirós, A. S. (2016), Economic growth, human capital and structural change: A dynamicpanel data analysis. Research Policy, 45 (8): 1636 - 1648.