آیا نفت نفرین است یا موهبت برای توسعه مالی ایران؟

Roudari, Soheil and Tehranchian, Amirmansour and Zarei, Pegah (2020): آیا نفت نفرین است یا موهبت برای توسعه مالی ایران؟. Published in: Quarterly Energy Economics Review , Vol. 17, No. 70 (1 November 2021): pp. 85-116.

Abstract

In the present study, the effect of oil price on the financial development index based on the banking network and based on the stock market has been investigated in the period 1357-1396 by using Markov Switching Model. The results show that if the financial development based on the stock market be in its low regime, the increase in oil prices for financial development is not a curse and has no significant effect, and if it be in its high regime, it will reduce the financial development of the stock market. If the financial development index based on the banking network be in the middle regime, the increase in oil prices will not be a curse and will not reduce bank financial development. Also, the variables of trade openness and economic growth have different effects depending on the type of financial development and the regime. According to the research results, the increase in oil prices and revenues under any circumstances does not lead to a decrease in financial development in the country, and due to the stability and the regime of financial development and the type of financial development, policy-making must be done.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Is oil curse or a blessing for Iran's financial development?
• Language: Persian
• Keywords: Recourse Curse, Financial Development, Trade Openness, Economic Growth, Markov Switching Model
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C34 - Truncated and Censored Models ; Switching Regression Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages

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