Determinantes del cierre de proyectos de inversión pública en Perú: Un enfoque jerárquico ponderado

Rivasplata Ramírez, Arnold and Ocola Agüero, Kendy (2025): Determinantes del cierre de proyectos de inversión pública en Perú: Un enfoque jerárquico ponderado.

Abstract

This study analyzes the determinants of public investment project completion in Peru, using a weighted hierarchical logit model to control for heterogeneity at the macro-regional and institutional function levels. The dependent variable is project completion, while the explanatory variables include selection in the Transitory Complementary Provision (DCT), financial progress, project typology, level of government, use of Form 12B, and the Multiannual Investment Programming (PMI).

The results show that financial progress and the use of Form 12B significantly increase the probability of project completion, with marginal effects of 0.32 and 0.18, respectively. In contrast, selection under the DCT and the existence of the PMI are associated with lower probabilities of completion, indicating that planning or resource allocation alone does not guarantee effective execution. Additionally, projects under the National and Regional governments have a higher likelihood of completion compared to local government projects, while smaller projects, such as PIP Minor and Investment Projects, face greater challenges in successfully reaching completion. IOARR projects, on the other hand, show completion outcomes comparable to PIP Major projects, without statistically significant differences.

These findings highlight the importance of financial execution, management tools, and institutional capacity for the success of public investment projects, providing relevant empirical evidence for improving project management and investment prioritization within the framework of Peru’s public investment system.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Determinants of the closure of public investment projects in Peru: A weighted hierarchical approach
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: public investment, investment projects, hierarchical logit model, marginal effects, random effects, investment closure.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models ; Discrete Regressors ; Proportions ; Probabilities; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H54 - Infrastructures ; Other Public Investment and Capital Stock; H - Public Economics > H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations > H72 - State and Local Budget and Expenditures; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O22 - Project Analysis; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R5 - Regional Government Analysis > R58 - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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