Índice de precios de viviendas nuevas en Santiago basado en la metodología de ventas repetidas

Lozano, Francisco Javier (2025): Índice de precios de viviendas nuevas en Santiago basado en la metodología de ventas repetidas. Forthcoming in:

Abstract

Constructing price indices for new housing markets is challenged by the lack of resale history required for traditional methods. This study proposes a novel solution by exploiting purchase agreement cancellations to identify repeat-sales pairs within the pre-sale market. Using a comprehensive dataset from Santiago (2013–2024) with 25,049 repeat-sales pairs, this approach ensures strict adherence to the constant quality assumption, effectively eliminating depreciation bias by comparing the same unoccupied unit across time. Results from Geometric (GRS) and Arithmetic (ARS) estimators reveal three critical insights: (1) a distinct price hierarchy, indicating that capital appreciation was concentrated in entry-level and investment segments rather than high-value assets; (2) the index acts as a leading indicator, detecting the post-2021 market correction before official deed-based records; and (3) a 27% nominal loss rate in recent subsequent sales, validating significant price adjustments driven by financial frictions.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: New housing price index in Santiago based on the repeat-sales methodology
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Repeated sales, Cancellations, Pre-sales, Santiago
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R3 - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets

References

Bailey, M. J., Muth, R. F., & Nourse, H. O. (1963). A Regression Method for Real Estate Price Index Construction. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 58(304), 933-942. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10480679

Balsa, J. J., & Vásquez, J. (2023a). Índice de Precios de Vivienda Banco Central de Chile 2022. Estudios Económicos Estadísticos, 139. Banco Central de Chile. https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/EEE_139.pdf

Balsa, J. J., & Vásquez, J. (2023b). Valor de mercado de la vivienda y sus componentes de tierra y construcción. Estudios Económicos Estadísticos, 141. Banco Central de Chile. https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133329/EEE_141.pdf

Banco Central de Chile. (2025). Encuesta Financiera de Hogares 2024. Informe de resultados. Banco Central de Chile. https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/d/banco-central/documento-de-resultados-efh-2024

Birkeland, K. B., D’Silva, A. D., Füss, R., & Oust, A. (2021). The Predictability of House Prices: Human Against Machine. International Real Estate Review, 24(2), 139-183. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v24n022021p139-183.html

Bourassa, S. C., Cantoni, E., & Hoesli, M. (2013). Robust Repeat Sales Indexes: Robust Repeat Sales Indexes. Real Estate Economics, 41(3), 517-541. https://doi.org/10.1111/reec.12013

Cannaday, R. E., Munneke, H. J., & Yang, T. T. (2005). A multivariate repeat-sales model for estimating house price indices. Journal of Urban Economics, 57(2), 320-342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2004.12.001

Case, B., Pollakowski, H. O., & Wachter, S. M. (1991). On Choosing Among House Price Index Methodologies. Real Estate Economics, 19(3), 286-307. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00554

Case, B., & Quigley, J. M. (1991). The Dynamics of Real Estate Prices. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 73(1), 50. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109686

Case, K., & Shiller, R. (1987). Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities (N.o w2393; p. w2393). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2393

Cifuentes, A., Cid, B., & Gallardo, F. (2020). Determinantes de los precios en el mercado inmobiliario sobre la base de un índice de cualidades de la vivienda. Revista Chilena de Economía y Sociedad, 14(2), 22-36. https://rches.utem.cl/?p=1606

Clapham, E., Englund, P., Quigley, J. M., & Redfearn, C. L. (2006). Revisiting the Past and Settling the Score: Index Revision for House Price Derivatives. Real Estate Economics, 34(2), 275-302. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2006.00167.x

Clapp, J. M. (2004). A Semiparametric Method for Estimating Local House Price Indices. Real Estate Economics, 32(1), 127-160. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1080-8620.2004.00086.x

Clapp, J. M., & Giaccotto, C. (1999). Revisions in Repeat-Sales Price Indexes: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow? Real Estate Economics, 27(1), 79-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00767

Clapp, J. M., Giaccotto, C., & Tirtiroglu, D. (1991). Housing Price Indices Based on All Transactions Compared to Repeat Subsamples. Real Estate Economics, 19(3), 270-285. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00553

Contat, J., & Larson, W. D. (2024). A flexible method of housing price index construction using repeat‐sales aggregates. Real Estate Economics, 52(6), 1551-1583. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12474

Englund, P., Quigley, J. M., & Redfearn, C. L. (1998). Improved Price Indexes for Real Estate: Measuring the Course of Swedish Housing Prices. Journal of Urban Economics, 44(2), 171-196. https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.1997.2062

Epley, D. (2016). Assumptions and Restrictions on the Use of Repeat Sales to Estimate Residential Price Appreciation. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 24(2), 275-286. https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2016.12090428

Escobar, J., Huertas, C., Mora, D. A., & Romero, J. V. (2006). Índice de precios de la vivienda usada en Colombia-IPVU: método de ventas repetidas. Borradores de Economía, (368). https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/368.html

European Commission. Eurostat. (2013). Handbook on residential property prices indices (RPPIs). LU: Publications Office. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2785/34007

Francke, M. K. (2010). Repeat Sales Index for Thin Markets: A Structural Time Series Approach. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 41(1), 24-52. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-009-9203-1

Francke, M., Rolheiser, L., & Van De Minne, A. (2025). Estimating Census Tract House Price Indexes: A New Spatial Dynamic Factor Approach. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 70(3), 483-514. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-023-09957-w

Gatzlaff, D. H., & Haurin, D. R. (1997). Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 14(1/2), 33-50. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007763816289

Goetzmann, W. N. (1992). The accuracy of real estate indices: Repeat sale estimators. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 5(1), 5-53. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00153997

Hansen, J. (2009). Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-Sales Measures. Economic Record, 85(269), 132-145. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2009.00544.x

Hill, R. J., Scholtz, M., Shimizu, C., & Steurer, M. (2018). An evaluation of the methods used by European countries to compute their official house price indices. Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, (500t), 221-238. https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2018.500t.1953

Hui, E. C. M., & Yue, S. (2006). Housing Price Bubbles in Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai: A Comparative Study. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 33(4), 299-327. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-006-0335-2

Idrovo, B. J., & Lennon, J. (2011). Índice de Precios de Viviendas Nuevas para el Gran Santiago. Working Papers No. 65, Cámara Chilena de la Construcción. https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/31400.html

Idrovo, B. J., Lozano, F. J., & Contreras, J. E. (2021). Prosperity or Real Estate Bubble? Exuberance Probability Index of Real Housing Prices in Chile. International Journal of Financial Studies, 9(3), 51. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs9030051

Jansen, S. J. T., De Vries, P., Coolen, H. C. C. H., Lamain, C. J. M., & Boelhouwer, P. J. (2008). Developing a House Price Index for The Netherlands: A Practical Application of Weighted Repeat Sales. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 37(2), 163-186. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9068-0

Leishman, C., & Watkins, C. (2002). Estimating local repeat sales house price indices for British cities. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 20(1), 36-58. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635780210416255

Leung, C. K. Y., Wong, K. S. K., & Cheung, P. W. Y. (2007). On the Stability of the Implicit Prices of Housing Attributes: A Dynamic Theory and Some Evidence. International Real Estate Review, 10(2), 66-93. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v10n022007p66-93.html

Lopez Ochoa, E. (2023). Housing price indices from online listing data: Addressing the spatial bias with sampling weights. Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 50(4), 1039-1056. https://doi.org/10.1177/23998083221130713

Lozano, F. J., & Idrovo, B. J. (2024). Shocks Regulatorios al Mercado Inmobiliario de Chile: ¿Cuánto del IVA a la Vivienda se Transfiere al Precio de Venta? Economic Analysis Review, 39(2), 35-59.

McMillen, D. P., & Thorsnes, P. (2006). Housing Renovations and the Quantile Repeat-Sales Price Index. Real Estate Economics, 34(4), 567-584. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2006.00179.x

Melser, D. (2023). Selection Bias in Housing Price Indexes: The Characteristics Repeat Sales Approach. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 85(3), 623-637. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12534

Nagaraja, C., Brown, L., & Wachter, S. (2014). Repeat Sales House Price Index Methodology. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 22(1), 23-46. https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2014.12090375

Ong, S.-E., & Sing, T.-F. (2002). Price Discovery between Private and Public Housing Markets. Urban Studies, 39(1), 57-67. https://www.jstor.org/stable/43196745

Parrado, E., Cox, P., & Fuenzalida C., M. (2009). Evolución de los Precios de Viviendas en Chile. Economía chilena, 12(1), 51-68. https://ideas.repec.org/a/chb/bcchec/v12y2009i1p51-68.html

Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition. Journal of Political Economy, 82(1), 34-55. https://doi.org/10.1086/260169

Shiller, R. J. (1991). Arithmetic repeat sales price estimators. Journal of Housing Economics, 1(1), 110-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1051-1377(05)80028-2

Shimizu, C., & Karato, K. (2016). Property Price Index Theory and Estimation: A Survey (HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series N.o 34). Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/hitremfce/34.htm

Steele, M., & Goy, R. (1997). Short Holds, the Distributions of First and Second Sales, and Bias in the Repeat-Sales Price Index. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 14(1/2), 133-154. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007780219924

Tse, R. Y. C., Ho, C. W., & Ganesan, S. (1999). Matching housing supply and demand: An empirical study of Hong Kong’s market. Construction Management and Economics, 17(5), 625-633. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461999371231

Wallace, N. E., & Meese, R. A. (1997). The Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices: A Comparison of Repeat-Sales, Hedonic-Regression, and Hybrid Approaches. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 14(1/2), 51-73. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007715917198

Wang, F. T., & Zorn, P. M. (1997). Estimating House Price Growth with Repeat Sales Data: What’s the Aim of the Game? Journal of Housing Economics, 6(2), 93-118. https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.1997.0209

Yeon, K. (2016). A Study on Repeat Sales House Price Index Based on Penalized Quantile Regression. Procedia Computer Science, 91, 260-267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2016.07.071

Yiu, C. Y. (2009). Negative real interest rate and housing bubble implosion – an empirical study in Hong Kong. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 14(3), 257-270. https://doi.org/10.1108/13664380911000477

Zhang, H., Song, Z., & Chen, Z. (2025). An approach for constructing spatially paired pseudo repeat-sales housing price indices in China. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 40(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-024-10161-2