Mises' Regression Theorem and Bitcoin - From a Problem to a Full Program and Methodology for Researching the Non-Monetary Utility of Cryptographic Money

Selinger, Daniel P and Crofton, Isaak (2025): Mises' Regression Theorem and Bitcoin - From a Problem to a Full Program and Methodology for Researching the Non-Monetary Utility of Cryptographic Money.

Abstract

This essay argues that Ludwig von Mises’ regression theorem, when interpreted with full attention to its original logical structure and later Austrian developments, can be elevated from a narrow solution to the monetary circularity problem into a comprehensive methodological framework for analysing the non-monetary utility of cryptographic money. The authors reconstruct the classical Mises–Rothbard formulation and apply it to early Bitcoin history and to Monero’s genesis—especially the first non-coinbase transaction at block 110—to show that these systems exhibited technological, epistemic, and ideological utilities at “zero-day,” prior to any established exchange value. The article also critiques recent misapplications of the regression theorem that dilute its rigor by treating virtually any collectible or idiosyncratically valued object as sufficient to satisfy its requirements, thereby trivializing the theorem. In contrast, the authors propose a disciplined regression-based research programme capable of distinguishing genuine cryptographic innovations from speculative tokens, tracing how early non-monetary utilities bootstrap intersubjective demand, marketability, and eventual monetary roles. The essay concludes that a rigorously applied regression framework provides a powerful tool for evaluating digital assets, advancing cryptographic research, and understanding the emergence of new monetary and institutional forms.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Mises’ regression theorem; non-monetary utility; cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin; Monero; zero-day analysis; Austrian economics; commodity theory of money; cryptographic primitives; privacy technologies; methodological framework; monetary emergence; blockchain history; digital assets evaluation
• Subjects: B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology > B41 - Economic Methodology; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z11 - Economics of the Arts and Literature; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z19 - Other

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