Method for Comparing Economic Impacts Caused by Government Actions on Natural Resource Extraction in Logging, Oil and Gas, and Mining

Bell, Peter (2025): Method for Comparing Economic Impacts Caused by Government Actions on Natural Resource Extraction in Logging, Oil and Gas, and Mining.

Abstract

This paper describes a methodology to compare historical episodes where governments announce policy changes that impact natural resources and extractive industries. For example, the Province of British Columbia implemented a new tax policy for mining in 1974 that created “super royalty payments” and drastically reduced local mining activity; this paper introduces statistical measurements to capture media attention, stock market effects, and GDP impacts of policy changes like the creation of super royalties in BC. These statistical measures can be compared between different historical episodes to understand the range of outcomes for government policy changes. The method also applies to logging, oil and gas, and agriculture, which are highly impacted by government policy. The paper identifies several historical episodes that can serve as case studies to use the methodology, although full implementation of the method is beyond the scope of this paper.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Government, Action, Natural Experiment, Methodology, Historical, Data Science, Mining, Oil, Forestry, Agriculture, Chile, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Canada,
• Subjects: B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C80 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C81 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data ; Data Access; D - Microeconomics > D6 - Welfare Economics; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; G - Financial Economics > G0 - General; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation; H - Public Economics > H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue; H - Public Economics > H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue > H23 - Externalities ; Redistributive Effects ; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; H - Public Economics > H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue > H25 - Business Taxes and Subsidies; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies; K - Law and Economics > K2 - Regulation and Business Law; K - Law and Economics > K2 - Regulation and Business Law > K23 - Regulated Industries and Administrative Law; L - Industrial Organization > L5 - Regulation and Industrial Policy; L - Industrial Organization > L7 - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction; L - Industrial Organization > L7 - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction > L72 - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources; N - Economic History > N5 - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy; P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P11 - Planning, Coordination, and Reform; P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P16 - Political Economy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q33 - Resource Booms; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics; Y - Miscellaneous Categories > Y1 - Data: Tables and Charts

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