Between solidarity and concern: Refugee inflow and crime perception

Zuchowski, David and Maciel, Mateus (2025): Between solidarity and concern: Refugee inflow and crime perception.

Abstract

Most empirical research finds that immigration has no effect on crime. Nevertheless, public concerns about immigration and crime persist, possibly driven by misperceptions. In this paper, we examine how an immigration shock affects crime perception. Specifically, we analyze the impact of the sudden and large-scale arrival of Ukrainian refugees in Poland following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Using unique data on reported safety concerns, we find a persistent decline in perceived risk in regions more affected by the refugee inflow. We provide additional evidence that this effect stems from a shift in local crime perception due to exposure to war refugees, rather than from a reduction in actual safety threats.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Crime, Crime Perception, Safety Concerns, Refugee Migration
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F22 - International Migration; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J15 - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants ; Non-labor Discrimination; K - Law and Economics > K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior > K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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