Влияние информационных технологий и искусственного интеллекта на экономические механизмы

Parinov, Sergey (2025): Влияние информационных технологий и искусственного интеллекта на экономические механизмы.

Abstract

In recent years, the economic literature has discussed the impact of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models on macroeconomic indicators, productivity, wages, inequality, etc. The proposed study complements these results by analyzing the impact of AI on the economy through the functioning of regulatory structures and mechanisms. The hypothesis that the efficiency of economic mechanisms can be increased with the help of information technology (IT), including AI, is considered. For this purpose, based on the concepts of the Institutional Analysis and Development framework, the information processes involved in the work of six functions of coordination and management of economic mechanisms are described. These information processes are sequences of procedures for collecting and processing information that are universal for economic mechanisms of various types. The nature of the relationships between the efficiency of mechanisms and the general properties of IT/AI solutions is considered. IT/AI solutions that improve the efficiency of mechanisms for joint activities of a large number of participants in the context of increasing intensity of unpredictable changes are described. Possible economic consequences of increasing the efficiency of mechanisms through the use of the described IT/AI solutions are analyzed. The main results of the study also include: a) methodology for studying the functioning of economic mechanisms; b) an initial version of the concept for the systemic digitalization of economic mechanisms; c) a description of the "social order" for the IT/AI industry, consisting of IT/AI solutions that are key to digitalization, but currently lacking. Рассматривается предположение, что эффективность экономических механизмов может быть повышена с помощью информационных технологий (ИТ), включая ИИ. Для этого на основе концепций фреймворка «Институциональный анализ и развитие» описаны информационные процессы, которые участвуют в работе шести функций координации и управления экономических механизмов. Эти информационные процессы представляют собой последовательности процедур сбора и обработки информации, которые являются универсальными для экономических механизмов различных типов. Рассмотрен характер связей между эффективностью механизмов и общими свойствами ИТ/ИИ решений. Описаны ИТ/ИИ решения, обеспечивающие повышение эффективности механизмов для совместной деятельности большого количества участников в условиях усиливающейся интенсивности непредсказуемых изменений. Проанализированы возможные экономические последствия от повышения эффективности механизмов за счет использования описанных ИТ/ИИ решений. В основные результаты исследования также входят: а) методология исследования функционирования экономических механизмов; б) начальная версия концепции системной цифровизации экономических механизмов; в) описание «социального заказа» для ИТ/ИИ индустрии, состоящего из ключевых для цифровизации механизмов, но пока отсутствующих, ИТ/ИИ решений.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The impact of information technology and artificial intelligence on economic mechanisms
• Language: Russian
• Keywords: экономические механизмы, информационные процессы, ИТ/ИИ решения, методология, концепция, социальный заказ
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D02 - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact; D - Microeconomics > D2 - Production and Organizations > D23 - Organizational Behavior ; Transaction Costs ; Property Rights; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L86 - Information and Internet Services ; Computer Software; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences ; Diffusion Processes

References

Acemoglu, D. (2025). The simple macroeconomics of AI. Economic Policy, 40(121), 13-58 (cited text fragments and page numbers correspond the article in «NBER working papers» online archive- https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32487/w32487.pdf)

Agrawal, Ajay, Joshua S Gans, and Avi Goldfarb. (2023) “Artificial Intelligence Adoption and System-Wide Change,” Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, 2023, pp. 1–11.

Bick, A., Blandin, A., & Deming, D. (2025). The Impact of Generative AI on Work Productivity (No. 99631). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Coase, R. (1998). "The New Institutional Economics," American Economic Review, 88(2), pp. 72–74.

Crabtree, R. A., Fox, M. S., & Baid, N. K. (1997). Case studies of coordination activities and problems in collaborative design. Research in Engineering Design, 9, 70-84. DOI:10.1007/BF01596483

Dizike, P. (2024). Daron Acemoglu: What do we know about the economics of AI? MIT News, https://economics.mit.edu/news/daron-acemoglu-what-do-we-know-about-economics-ai

Goldman Sachs, “Generative AI could raise global GDP by 7 percent,” 2023. https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent.html.

Granovetter, M. (1983). The strength of weak ties: A network theory revisited. Sociological theory, 201-233.

Hayek, F. A. V. (1945). The use of knowledge in society. The American Economic Review 35:44, 518-530, 1945.

Hurwicz, L. (1973). The design of mechanisms for resource allocation. The American Economic Review, 63(2), 1-30.

Hurwicz, L., & Reiter, S. (2006). Designing economic mechanisms. Cambridge University Press.

Korinek, A., & Suh, D. (2024). Scenarios for the Transition to AGI (No. w32255). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Lara, A. (2015). Rationality and complexity in the work of Elinor Ostrom. International Journal of the Commons, 9(2), 573-594.

Malone, T. W., & Crowston, K. (1994). The interdisciplinary study of coordination. // ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR), 26(1), 87-119

Maskin, E., & Sjöström, T. (2002). Implementation theory. Handbook of social Choice and Welfare, 1, 237-288.

McKinsey Global Institute. (2023). The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier. McKinsey Digital, Report, 2023. https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier

North, D. C. (1995). "The New Institutional Economics and Third World Development" in The New Institutional Economics and Third World Development, J. Harriss, J. Hunter, and C. M. Lewis, ed., pp. 17–26.

Powell, W. W. (1990). Neither market nor hierarchy: Network forms of organization. Research in Organizational Behavior, v. 12, p., 295-336.

Provan, K. G., & Kenis, P. (2008). Modes of network governance: Structure, management, and effectiveness. Journal of public administration research and theory, 18(2), 229-252.

Ostrom E. (2005). Understanding Institutional Diversity. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Weigand, H., van der Poll, F., & de Moor, A. (2003). Coordination through communication. In Proceedings of the 8th International Working Conference on the Language-Action Perspective on Communication Modelling. Tilburg, The Netherlands.

Williamson, O.E. (1975). Markets and hierarchies: Analysis and antitrust implications. New York: Free Press.

Williamson, O. E. (2000). "The New Institutional Economics: Taking Stock, Looking Ahead," Journal of Economic Literature, 38(3), pp. 595–613