Threatened, Mobilized, Distrustful: Social Trust in Ukraine’s War Context

Tamilina, Larysa (2025): Threatened, Mobilized, Distrustful: Social Trust in Ukraine’s War Context. Forthcoming in:

Abstract

Social trust constitutes a central component of social cohesion, a key determinant of economic development, and a foundational element of stable and effective democratic systems. Exposure to violence can undermine trust by disrupting collective cooperation and altering the established patterns of social interaction. This study uses the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian war to explore how social trust changes during conflict, while distinguishing between two primary influences – ideological and experiential. The former are defined as individuals’ alignment with wartime ideologies. The latter are limited to perceived deteriorations in personal safety and mental health caused by experiences of violence. The analysis is based on structural equation modelling, using data collected from 1,224 respondents through an online survey conducted in 2024. The findings show that experiential influences erode trust not only directly but also indirectly, mainly through reduced confidence in state institutions. Ideological influences provide a partial buffer against these negative consequences, insufficient, however, to offset them. As a result, the net effect of the war on social trust remains negative and sizeable among Ukrainians.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Conflict, ideological mobilization, social trust, structural equation modelling, Ukraine.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C01 - Econometrics; D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances ; Revolutions; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z10 - General

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