Futures Thinking and Strategic Foresight in Local Governance: Institutional and Local Government Leadership Challenges and Policy Options in Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Philippines

Zabala, Cedrick and Lee, Armand and Valerio, Aldrin and Marcos, Alex and Atilano, Lesley Ann and Salvador, Ivan Eric and Moreno, Frede (2026): Futures Thinking and Strategic Foresight in Local Governance: Institutional and Local Government Leadership Challenges and Policy Options in Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Philippines.

Abstract

Local governments face compound uncertainty from demographic change, climate risk, fiscal pressure, and security threats. Futures thinking and strategic foresight offer governance tools that help public institutions anticipate disruption and guide long-term policy choice. This article examines the institutional adoption of futures thinking and strategic foresight within local governments in the Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Philippines. The study assesses leadership capacity, organizational readiness, planning practice, and intergovernmental coordination across provinces and cities in the region. The analysis uses official administrative data, development plans, budget records, and key informant evidence from provincial and city governments. Findings show that Region IX local governments rely on compliance-driven planning cycles, short-term investment programming, and fragmented data systems. Executive leadership turnover, limited technical staff, and weak foresight mandates constrain institutional learning. Local governments align plans with national frameworks yet lack anticipatory governance tools that support scenario building, horizon scanning, and adaptive policy design. The article presents a data-driven institutional matrix that maps foresight capacity across governance functions. Policy options focus on leadership development, statutory integration of foresight in local planning, regional knowledge platforms, and incentives within intergovernmental fiscal systems. The study contributes empirical evidence to local governance scholarship by linking futures thinking to leadership practice in a developing country context.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Local governance; strategic foresight; futures thinking; leadership capacity; regional planning; Philippines; Zamboanga Peninsula
• Subjects: A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A10 - General; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A12 - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A19 - Other; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I0 - General > I00 - General; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I2 - Education and Research Institutions; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I2 - Education and Research Institutions > I20 - General; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I2 - Education and Research Institutions > I28 - Government Policy; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I2 - Education and Research Institutions > I29 - Other; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I31 - General Welfare, Well-Being; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I38 - Government Policy ; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I39 - Other; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M0 - General; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M1 - Business Administration; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M1 - Business Administration > M10 - General; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M1 - Business Administration > M12 - Personnel Management ; Executives; Executive Compensation; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M1 - Business Administration > M14 - Corporate Culture ; Diversity ; Social Responsibility; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M1 - Business Administration > M19 - Other; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M5 - Personnel Economics; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M5 - Personnel Economics > M50 - General; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M5 - Personnel Economics > M53 - Training; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M5 - Personnel Economics > M54 - Labor Management; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M5 - Personnel Economics > M59 - Other; Z - Other Special Topics > Z0 - General; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z10 - General; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z13 - Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology ; Social and Economic Stratification; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z18 - Public Policy; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z19 - Other

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