Climate-Smart Agriculture in West Africa: A Quantitative Assessment of Crop-Specific Resilience and Environmental Thresholds in Sierra Leone (2000–2024)

Kortu, Stonison Tamba (2026): Climate-Smart Agriculture in West Africa: A Quantitative Assessment of Crop-Specific Resilience and Environmental Thresholds in Sierra Leone (2000–2024).

Abstract

2. Abstract Background: Sub-Saharan African agriculture is increasingly threatened by the acceleration of climate-driven volatility. In Sierra Leone, where over 60% of the population relies on rain-fed subsistence farming, the lack of crop-specific climate risk data poses a critical barrier to food security planning. While national yields have grown due to post-conflict stabilization, the underlying biological thresholds of primary staples remain poorly understood, leaving the agricultural sector vulnerable to "tipping points" in thermal and hydrological stress. Objective: This research investigates the multi-decadal impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in Sierra Leone. By integrating satellite-derived hydrological data with national production statistics, the study aims to identify crop-specific sensitivities to environmental stressors and establish biological temperature thresholds for staple crops. Methodology: The study utilizes a fused dataset combining FAOSTAT yield records, NASA soil moisture metrics, and localized atmospheric data from the Climate Initiative portal. A robust data science pipeline was employed, involving Z-score standardization, log-transformations for precipitation skewness, and the engineering of quadratic temperature terms. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models with interaction terms were utilized to evaluate the differential resilience of major staples, including Rice, Sorghum, Maize, and Cassava. Results: Findings reveal that while technological and infrastructural progress (Year) remains the primary driver of yield growth ($\beta=0.455, p<0.001$), agricultural output is increasingly constrained by non-linear temperature thresholds ($p=0.017$). Notably, the analysis identifies Sorghum as a highly resilient staple, demonstrating a unique ability to maintain yield stability during significant rainfall volatility ($p=0.009$), whereas Rice exhibits higher vulnerability to thermal anomalies. Furthermore, results suggest that excessive precipitation and drainage constraints currently present a higher statistical risk to productivity than drought. Conclusion: The study provides empirical evidence for the prioritization of drought-tolerant and flood-resilient cultivars in national food security policies. These findings offer actionable insights for climate adaptation strategies in West Africa, emphasizing the need for crop diversification and improved hydrological infrastructure to buffer against accelerating environmental volatility.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Keywords: Sierra Leone, Food Security, Climate Resilience, Sorghum, NASA Soil Moisture, Agricultural Economics, West Africa.
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy

References

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