Determinantes de la eficiencia técnica relativa en proyectos de inversión financiados por el BCIE: Evidencia basada en DEA y modelo de variables censuradas

López, Axsell (2026): Determinantes de la eficiencia técnica relativa en proyectos de inversión financiados por el BCIE: Evidencia basada en DEA y modelo de variables censuradas.

Abstract

This study assesses the relative technical efficiency of investment projects financed by the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) over the period 2010-2024, evaluating their capacity to transform financial resources into development outcomes. A two-stage approach is applied, combining Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with bias correction via bootstrap and a censored regression model to examine efficiency determinants. The results indicate an average technical efficiency of 35%, with substantial heterogeneity across projects, countries, and sectors. The benchmarking analysis identifies a limited set of projects defining the efficient frontier. Moreover, efficiency is associated with both microeconomic factors related to project design and implementation and macroeconomic conditions in recipient countries.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Determinants of relative technical efficiency in CABEI-financed investment projects: Evidence from DEA and a censored regression model
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, CABEI, Technical Efficiency, Investment Projects, Tobit.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C13 - Estimation: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis; H - Public Economics > H4 - Publicly Provided Goods > H43 - Project Evaluation ; Social Discount Rate; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O22 - Project Analysis; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O54 - Latin America ; Caribbean

References

Amemiya, T. (1984). Tobit models: A survey. Journal of Econometrics, 24(1-2), 3-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(84)90074-5

Banco Centroamericano de Integración Económica. (2021a, octubre). Aproximaciones para la evaluación ex post aplicando la Tasa Interna de Retorno Económica (TIRE) (inf. téc. N.º DOC-ODEI-06/2021). https://ode.bcie.org/fileadmin/ode/Aproximaciones_para_la_Evaluacion_ex_post_aplicando_la_TIRE.pdf

Banco Centroamericano de Integración Económica. (2021b). El BCIE en la mitigación y adaptación al cambio climático: Evaluaciones temáticas como parte del desarrollo de estudios complejos (inf. téc. N.º DOC-ODEI-02/2021). https://ode.bcie.org/fileadmin/ode/DOC-ODEI-02-2021_El_BCIE_en_la_Mitigacion_y_Adaptacion_al_Cambio_Climatico.pdf

Banco Centroamericano de Integración Económica. (2022a). Primer inventario de los proyectos carreteros construidos por el BCIE en la región (inf. téc. N.º DOC-ODEI-04/2022). https://ode.bcie.org/fileadmin/ode/PRIMER_1_PDF

Banco Centroamericano de Integración Económica. (2022b). Una evaluación del indicador de empleo en el portafolio del BCIE (inf. téc. N.º DOC-ODEI-03/2022). https://ode.bcie.org/fileadmin/ode/Una_evaluacion_del_indicador_de_Empleo_en_el_portafolio_del_BCIE.pdf

Banco Centroamericano de Integración Económica. (2025, diciembre). Datos abiertos del BCIE: Impacto del desarrollo. https://datosabiertos.bcie.org/dataset/impacto-del-desarrollo

Banker, R. D., Charnes, A., & Cooper, W. W. (1984). Some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis. Management Science, 30(9), 1078–1092. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.30.9.1078

Baum, A., Mogues, T., & Verdier, G. (2020). Getting the most from public investment. Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513511818.071

Charnes, A., Cooper, W., & Rhodes, E. (1978). Measuring the efficiency of decision making units. European Journal of Operational Research, 2(6), 429–444. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(78)90138-8

Coelli, T. J., Rao, D., O'Donnell, C. J., & Battese, G. E. (2005). An introduction to efficiency and productivity analysis (2.ª ed., Vol. 1). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/b136381

Cooper, W. W., Seiford, L. M., & Tone, K. (2007, enero). Data Envelopment Analysis: A comprehensive text with models, applications, references and DEA-Solver software (2.ª ed.). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-45283-8

Dabla-Norris, E., Brumby, J., Kyobe, A., Mills, Z., & Papageorgiou, C. (2012). Investing in Public Investment: An Index of Public Investment efficiency. Journal of Economic Growth, 17(3), 235–266. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-012-9078-5

Deininger, K., Squire, L., & Basu, S. (1998). Does economic analysis improve the quality of foreign assistance? The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 385–418. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/12.3.385

Denizer, C., Kaufmann, D., & Kraay, A. (2013). Good countries or good projects? Macro and micro correlates of World Bank project performance. Journal of Development Economics, 105, 288–302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.06.003

Farrell, M. J. (1957). The measurement of productive efficiency. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (General), 120(3), 253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2343100

Fondo Monetario Internacional. (2015, junio). Making public investment more efficient (inf. téc.). https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2015/061115.pdf

Fondo Monetario Internacional. (2025, octubre). World economic outlook: Global economy in flux, prospects remain dim (inf. téc. N.º 979-8-22902-400-6). https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025

Kapsoli, J., Mogues, T., & Verdier, G. (2023, mayo). Benchmarking infrastructure using public investment efficiency frontiers (inf. téc. N.º WP/23/101). Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpia2023101-print-pdf.pdf

Kapsoli, J., & Teodoru, I. (2017). Benchmarking social spending using efficiency frontiers. Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), 17(197), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484315309.001

Lagarda, G., Linares, J., López, A., & Manzano, O. (2018). Gestión y ejecución de proyectos de inversión, tarea previa a la medición de la efectividad del desarrollo. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID). https://doi.org/10.18235/0001335

Rayp, G., & Van De Sijpe, N. (2007). Measuring and explaining government efficiency in developing countries. The Journal of Development Studies, 43(2), 360–381. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220380601125230

Simar, L., & Wilson, P. W. (1998). Sensitivity Analysis of Efficiency Scores: How to Bootstrap in Nonparametric Frontier Models. Management Science, 44(1), 49–61. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.44.1.49

Simar, L., & Wilson, P. W. (2000). A general methodology for bootstrapping in non-parametric frontier models. Journal of Applied Statistics, 27(6), 779–802. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664760050081951

Simar, L., & Wilson, P. W. (2005). Estimation and inference in two-stage, semi-parametric models of productive processes. Journal of Econometrics, 136(1), 31–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.07.009

Tobin, J. (1958). Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables. Econometrica, 26(1), 24. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907382