Intelligence artificielle et transformation de la relation croissance –emploi : une relecture empirique de la loi d’okun

Kahambwe, Christ and Aidini, Christian and E.Loemba, Alexandre (2026): Intelligence artificielle et transformation de la relation croissance –emploi : une relecture empirique de la loi d’okun.

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and technological progress on the relationship between economic growth and unemployment, traditionally described by Okun’s law. Using panel data for 11 developed countries over the period 2000–2024, the analysis relies on fixed-effects models and dynamic specifications estimated through the System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM). Technological intensity is proxied by an information and communication technology (ICT) index, and an interaction term is introduced to assess its moderating role in the growth–employment relationship. The results confirm the short-run validity of Okun’s law, as economic growth exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on changes in unemployment. However, technological intensity has a positive direct effect on unemployment and weakens the ability of growth to reduce unemployment, suggesting adjustment costs related to automation. Overall, the findings point to a structural transformation of the growth–employment nexus and highlight the need for active policies in skills development and labor market adjustment to ensure more inclusive growth.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Artificial Intelligence and the transformation of the growth–employment nexus: an empirical reappraisal of okun’s law
• Language: French
• Keywords: Artificial intelligence, economic growth, unemployment, Okun’s law, automation.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences ; Diffusion Processes; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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