Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Madagascar: Empirical evidence using the ARDL approach

Andrianady, Josué R. (2025): Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Madagascar: Empirical evidence using the ARDL approach.

Abstract

This study investigates whether the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) exists in Madagascar using annual data from 1990 to 2015. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality tests, we examine the relationships between CO$_2$ emissions, economic growth, agricultural production, and trade openness. Results show that economic growth follows a U-shaped pattern with CO$_2$ emissions: emissions decline at low income levels but increase as income rises, indicating that the classical inverted U-shaped EKC is not present. Agricultural production has no significant effect, and trade openness has a marginally negative impact on emissions. Granger causality tests indicate a unidirectional effect from economic growth to emissions. Policy recommendations focus on promoting cleaner trade and investing in renewable energy to prevent emissions from rising at higher income levels.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: French
• Keywords: EKC Hypothesis, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth, ARDL, Granger Causality, Madagascar
• Subjects: A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics

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