Le seuil de la dette publique en République Démocratique du Congo : contraintes conjoncturelles et impératif de soutenabilité pour le financement du développement

K. MUYA, Jonathan (2026): Le seuil de la dette publique en République Démocratique du Congo : contraintes conjoncturelles et impératif de soutenabilité pour le financement du développement.

Abstract

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) faces a structural paradox: a massive need for financing to support its economic and social development, in a context of limited domestic resource mobilization capacity. Public borrowing therefore appears to be an unavoidable lever to bridge the financing gap. However, the accumulation of debt is not neutral with respect to the effectiveness of economic policies, particularly countercyclical policies.

This article analyzes the existence of critical public debt thresholds in the DRC beyond which borrowing no longer supports growth and instead weakens the effectiveness of macroeconomic instruments. Using a threshold effects approach applied to Congolese macroeconomic data, the study identifies two major thresholds (32% and 110% of GDP) and draws strong implications for the development financing strategy and debt sustainability.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The public debt threshold in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: cyclical constraints and the imperative of sustainability for development financing
• Language: French
• Keywords: Public debt, countercyclical policies, threshold effects, sustainability, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), development financing.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O23 - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

References

Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 100(2), 573–578.

Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2), 345–368.

Caner, M., Grennes, T., & Koehler-Geib, F. (2010). Finding the tipping point: When sovereign debt turns bad. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5391.

Kumar, M. S., & Woo, J. (2010). Public debt and growth. IMF Working Paper No. 10/174.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2022). Review of the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries.