Raifu, Isiaka Akande and Afolabi, Joshua Adeyemi and Kumeka, Terver Theophilus (2026): Testing Causal Relationship between Institutional Quality and Inclusive Growth: Evidence from Panel Causality Tests.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_128141.pdf Download (469kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This study utilizes data from 162 countries to examine the nature and direction of causality between institutional quality and inclusive growth from 1996 to 2020. It employs three distinctive panel causality test methods to ensure the robustness and validity of the findings. The results of one of the causality test methods show mixed findings, while those of the other two methods provide evidence that institutional quality and inclusive growth reinforce each other. Overall, the results are robust to alternative estimation methods. These findings hold significant policy implications, emphasising that governments across all countries should prioritise the development of strong institutions and policies that promote inclusive growth as complementary strategies for sustainable development.
| Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
|---|---|
| Original Title: | Testing Causal Relationship between Institutional Quality and Inclusive Growth: Evidence from Panel Causality Tests |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | Institutional quality, Inclusive growth, Causality tests |
| Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O15 - Human Resources ; Human Development ; Income Distribution ; Migration O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O43 - Institutions and Growth |
| Item ID: | 128141 |
| Depositing User: | Mr Isiaka Akande Raifu |
| Date Deposited: | 09 Mar 2026 07:13 |
| Last Modified: | 09 Mar 2026 07:13 |
| References: | Abayomi, M.A., & Chidiebere, A.C. (2021). Effect of institutional quality on economic growth: A comparative evidence from Ghana and Nigeria. Social Science Research, 7(2), 232-251. Abubakar, S. (2020). Institutional Quality and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria. African Journal of Economic Review, 8(1), 48-64. Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S. (2005). Unbundling institutions. Journal of political Economy, 113(5), 949-995. Adeniyi, O., Ajayi, P. I., & Adedeji, A. A. (2021). Education and inclusive growth in West Africa. Journal of Economic and Development, 23(2), 163-183. Adeniyi, O., Kumeka, T. T., Orekoya, S., & Adekunle, W. (2021). Impact of tourism development on inclusive growth: A panel vector autoregression analysis for African economies. Tourism Economics, 13548166211061154. Afolabi, J. A., & Raifu, I. A. (2024). FDI, institutional quality and gender employment in Sub- Saharan Africa. Studies in economics and econometrics, 48(3), 252-274. Afolabi, J. A., & Raifu, I. A. (2025). Toward economic resilience in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The role of institutional quality and human capital development. Sustainable Development, 33(2), 2566-2578. Afolabi, J. A., Raifu, I. A., & Aminu, A. (2024). Entrepreneurship and unemployment nexus in MENA: does institutional quality matter?. Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship, 36(5), 775-807. Agyei, S. K., & Idan, G. A. (2022). Trade Openness, Institutions, and Inclusive Growth in Sub- Saharan Africa. SAGE Open, 12(2), 21582440221099008. Aixalá, J., & Fabro, G. (2008). Does the Impact of Institutional Quality on Economic Growth Depend on Initial Income Level? Economic Affairs, 28(3), 45-49. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468- 0270.2008.00844.x Alekhina, V., & Ganelli, G. (2021). Determinants of inclusive growth in ASEAN. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 1-33. Alexander, K. (2015). Inclusive growth: Topic guide. Birmingham, UK: GSDRC, University of Birmingham Alexiou, C., Tsaliki, P., & Osman, H.R. (2014). Institutional Quality and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from the Sudanese Economy. Economic Annals, 109(203), 119- 137. DOI:10.2298/EKA1403119A. Ali, I., & Zhuang, J. (2007). Inclusive growth toward a prosperous Asia: Policy implications (No. 97). ERD working paper series. Aminu, A., Raifu, I. A., & Oloyede, B. D. (2019). Financial development and manufacturing output growth nexus in Nigeria: The role of institutional quality. DBN Journal of Economics and Sustainable Growth, 1(2), 1-43. Asongu, S.A. (2016). Determinants of growth in fast‐developing countries: Evidence from bundling and unbundling institutions. Politics & Policy, 44(1), 97-134. Badmus, J. O., Raifu, I. A., & Balogun, O. S. (2026). Exploring the Role of Institutional Quality in the Crowding-Out Effect of Military Expenditure on Health Expenditure and Outcomes in Africa. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 32(1): 25–58 Bassey, C.E., & Egwu, C.J. (2019). Fiscal Policy, Institutional Quality and Inclusive Growth in Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science (IOSR-JHSS), 24(5), 72- 78. Berg, A. G., & Ostry, J. D. (2017). Inequality and unsustainable growth: two sides of the same coin? IMF Economic Review, 65(4), 792-815. Botchuin, W. C. (2020). Institutional factors of inclusive growth: Evidence from Côte d’ivoire. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 13(1), 13-23. Carter, B. (2014). Inclusive Institutions: Topic Guide. Birmingham, UK: GSDRC, University of Birmingham Chetty, R., Hendren, N., Kline, P., & Saez, E. (2014). Where is the land of opportunity? The geography of intergenerational mobility in the United States. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(4), 1553-1623. Chidede, T. (2017). Intra-SADC trade remains limited: How can it be boosted. Tralac Trade Law Centre: Cape Town, South Africa. Dhaene, G., & Jochmans, K. (2015). Split-panel jackknife estimation of fixed-effect models. The Review of Economic Studies, 82(3), 991-1030 Doumbia, D. (2019). The quest for pro-poor and inclusive growth: The role of governance. Applied economics, 51(16), 1762-1783. Doumbia, D. (2020). The role of good governance in fostering pro-poor and inclusive growth. Washington DC: Brookings Institution. Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. Frees, E. W. (1995). Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 69(2), 393-414. Friedman, M. (1937). The use of ranks to avoid the assumption of normality implicit in the analysis of variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 32(200), 675-701. Ghandour, M. M. (2020). The Role of Economic Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies on Inclusive Growth: An Empirical Study in the ESCWA Region. Management Studies and Economic Systems (MSES), 5 (3/4), 105-115. Glaeser, E. L., La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (2004). Do institutions cause growth? Journal of economic Growth, 9(3), 271-303. Góes, C. (2016). Institutions and growth: A GMM/IV panel VAR approach. Economics Letters, 138, 85-91. Green, D. (2015). What is the relationship between governance and economic growth? https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/what-is-the-relationship-between- governance-and-economic-growth/. (Accessed on 23rd October, 2022) Grömling, M., & Klös, H.P. (2019). Inclusive Growth-Institutions Matter! Intereconomics, 54(3), 184-192. Hoffmann, F., Lee, D. S., & Lemieux, T. (2020). Growing income inequality in the United States and other advanced economies. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 34(4), 52-78. Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W., & Rosen, H. S. (1988). Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 1371-1395. IMF (2016). Managing Government Compensation and Employment - Institutions, Policies, and Reform Challenges. IMF Policy Paper. Juodis, A., Karavias, Y., & Sarafidis, V. (2021). A homogeneous approach to testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Empirical Economics, 60(1), 93-112. Kebede, J.G., & Takyi, P.O. (2017). Causality between Institutional Quality and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. European Journal of Economic and Financial Research, 2(1), 114-131. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.438146. Khan, M. (2012). The political economy of inclusive growth. In Promoting Inclusive Growth: Challenges and Policies. Paris: OECD Klasen, S. (2008). Economic growth and poverty reduction: measurement issues using income and non-income indicators. World Development, 36(3), 420-445. Krueger, A. (2018). The rise and consequences of inequality in the United States, presentation at the center for American progress in Washington, DC January 12, 2012. Kumeka, T. T., Raifu, I. A., & Adeniyi, O. (2024). Globalisation and inclusive growth in Africa: The role of institutional quality. Foreign Trade Review, 59(1), 62-97. Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61(S1), 631-652. Mehmood, W., Din, S.M.U, Aman-Ullah, A., Khan, A.B., & Fareed, F. (2022). Institutional quality and economic growth: Evidence from South-Asian countries. Journal of Public Affairs, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2824 Munir, M., Fatima, A., Iftikhar, S. F. (2022). Exploring the Nexus Between Inclusive Growth and Institutional Quality. JISR management and social sciences and economics, 20(1), 1-21. DOI: 10.31384/jisrmsse/2022.20.1.4. Nguyen, C.P., Su, T.D., & Nguyen, T.V.H. (2018). Institutional Quality and Economic Growth: The Case of Emerging Economies. Theoretical Economics Letters, 8, 1943-1956. DOI: 10.4236/tel.2018.811127. Nketia, E. B., Kong, Y., Korankye, B., and Wireko, S. A. (2021). The influence of inequality, institutional quality, and foreign aid on inclusive growth in Africa. African Review of Economics and Finance, 1-33. Ntow-Gyamfi, M., Bokpin, G.A., Aboagye, A.Q.Q., & Ackah, C.G. (2019). Financial Development, Institutional Quality and Inclusive Growth in Africa. Global Business Review, 1-24. DOI: 10.1177/0972150919875367. OECD (2014). Making Inclusive Growth Happen: The Role of Institutions. In All on Board: Making Inclusive Growth Happen (chapter 4). Paris: OEC https://www.oecd.org/inclusive-growth/All-on-Board-Making-Inclusive-Growth- Happen.pdf (Accessed on 23rd October, 2022 Olanrewaju, G. O, Tella, S. A. and Adesoye, B. A. (2019). Institutional Quality, Financial Inclusion and Inclusive Growth: Causality Evidence from Nigeria. Economic and Financial Review, 57(3), 39-60. Olanrewaju, G. O., Aremo, A.G., & Binuyo, B.O. (2020). Inclusive Growth Effects of Institutional Quality in Nigeria. European Scientific Journal, 16(1), 85-105 DOI: 10.19044/esj.2020v16n1p85. Opeloyeru, O. S., Faronbi, T. O., & Raifu, I. A. (2024). The role of institutional quality in health expenditure-labor force participation Nexus in Africa. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(1), 2241-2273. Oyinlola, M. A., Adedeji, A. A., Bolarinwa, M. O., & Olabisi, N. (2020). Governance, domestic resource mobilization, and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Economic Analysis and Policy, 65, 68-88. Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012. Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. Raifu, I. A. (2021a). The role of institutional quality in oil price-unemployment nexus in African and Asian oil-exporting countries. Raifu, I. A. (2021b). The institutional role in oil revenue‐economic growth nexus in Nigeria. OPEC Energy review, 45(1), 52-84. Raifu, I. A., & Afolabi, J. A. (2022). The Effect of Financial Development on Unemployment in Emerging Market Countries. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 09749101221116715. Raifu, I. A., & Aminu, A. (2020). Financial development and agricultural performance in Nigeria: what role do institutions play?. Agricultural Finance Review, 80(2), 231-254. Raifu, I. A., & Obaniyi, F. A. (2025). Does Causality Between Tourism and environmental pollution depend on economic development level? A novel evidence from JKS's panel Granger non-causality method. Tourism: An International Interdisciplinary Journal, 73(1), 186-191. Raifu, I. A., Aminu, A., Afolabi, J. A., & Obijole, E. O. (2024). Government expenditure and unemployment nexus in Nigeria: does institutional quality matter?. Journal of Public Affairs, 24(2), e2917. Raifu, I. A., Nnadozie, O. O., & Opeloyeru, O. S. (2021a). The role of institutional quality in the human capital-economic growth nexus in Nigeria: evidence from aggregate and gender perspective. Journal of Economic Development, 46(4), 157-188. Raifu, I. A., Nnadozie, O. O., & Opeloyeru, O. S. (2021b). Differences in colonial experience and the institution-economic growth nexus in West Africa. Institutions and Economies, 27-58. Raifu, I. A., Obaniyi, F. A., Nnamani, G., & Salihu, A. A. (2025). Revisiting causal relationship between renewable energy and economic growth in OECD countries: Evidence from a novel JKS's Granger non-causality test. Renewable Energy, 244, 122559. Raifu, I. A., Obijole, E. O., & Nnadozie, O. O. (2022). The role of institutional quality in military spending and unemployment nexus in Nigeria. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 28(2), 155-194. Raifu, I. A., Okunoye, I. A., & Aminu, A. (2024). The effect of ICT on financial sector development in Africa: does regulatory quality matter?. Information Technology for Development, 30(3), 424-451. Raifu, I. A., Uzoma-Nwosu, D. C., & Aminu, A. (2025). On the effect of military spending on education in Africa: what role does institutional quality play?. Journal of Business and Socio-economic Development, 5(3), 222-239. Raji, R.O. (2021). Testing the Relationship between Financial Inclusion, Institutional Quality and Inclusive Growth for Nigeria. Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation, 1(1), 18-28. DOI: 10.35877/454RI.daengku393. Sabir, S., & Qamar, M. (2019). Fiscal policy, institutions and inclusive growth: evidence from the developing Asian countries. International Journal of Social Economics. Sahni, H., Nsiah, C., & Fayissa, B. (2021). Institutional Quality, Infrastructure, and Economic Growth in Africa. Journal of African Development, 22(1), 7-37. DOI: 10.5325/jafrideve.22.1.0007 Sawyer, W.C. (2010). Institutional Quality and Economic Growth in Latin America. Global Economy Journal, 10(4), 1-11. Siyakiya, P. (2017). The Impact of Institutional Quality on Economic Performance: An Empirical Study of 28 European Union and Prospective Member Countries. World Journal of Applied Economics, 3(2), 3-24. DOI:10.22440/wjae.3.2.1. Tebaldi, E., & Elmslie, B. (2008). Institutions, Innovation and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Development, 33(2), 27. Tran, O.K.T., Le, H.D., & Nguyen, A.H.V. (2021). Role of institutional quality in economic development: A case study of Asian countries. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 19(2), 357-369. DOI:10.21511/ppm.19(2).2021.29. Utile, T. I., Ijirshar, V. U., and Sem, A. (2021). Impact of Institutional Quality on Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 4(3), 157-177. Xiao, J., Juodis, A., Karavias, Y., & Sarafidis, V. (2021). Improved Tests for Granger Non- Causality in Panel Data (No. 107180). University Library of Munich, Germany. Yinusa, O.G., Aworinde, O.B., & Odusanya, I.A. (2020). Institutional quality, financial development and inclusive growth: Asymmetric cointegration approach. International Journal of Management, Economics and Social Sciences, 9(3), 182-205. DOI: 10.32327/IJMESS/9.3.2020.10 Zhuang, J., de Dios, E., & Martin, A. L. (2010). Governance and institutional quality and the links with economic growth and income inequality: With special reference to developing Asia. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series, (193). |
| URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/128141 |

