Blowin’ in the Wind? Adapting to Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones with pesticides

Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa (2026): Blowin’ in the Wind? Adapting to Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones with pesticides.

Abstract

Using U.S. county-level data, we uncover a relatively overlooked coping strategy employed by farmers in response to cyclones: selective increase of pesticide application. By constructing a novel dataset spanning 25 years of tropical cyclone activity, pesticide use, and agricultural output, our difference-in- differences design reveals that farmers respond to cyclone shocks by applying more pesticides to protect their crops. On average, a typical U.S. farm applies approximately 2,150–2,250 kg more pesticides in both the event year and the following - around ten times the normal annual quantity. While rising pesticide use poses health and environmental risks, our heterogeneity analysis offers a more nuanced view. Farmers selectively boost pesticide applications to counter the rise in pests and pathogens that usually follow cyclones. They raise the use of lower-toxicity pesticides (e.g., 2,4-D, Metolachlor) but not highly hazardous ones (e.g., Chlorpyrifos), suggesting endogenous avoidance behavior consistent with risk awareness and regulatory constraints. These results hold robustly across eight measures of cyclone intensity, including rainfall, wind speed, and duration. In terms of coping mechanisms, farmers not only intensify pesticide use on existing crops but also expand their harvested acreage to compensate for yield losses, with effects lasting up to four years after a cyclone event. Overall, our results indicate that pesticide intensification, though adaptive in the short term, imposes considerable e and environmental trade-offs.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Tropical Cyclone, Atlantic Basin, Pesticide Use, Difference-in-Differences.
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics

References

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