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Early State Formation and Interstate Competition in a Malthusian Economy

Chu, Angus C. and Wang, Xilin and Xu, Rongxin (2025): Early State Formation and Interstate Competition in a Malthusian Economy.

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Abstract

This study develops a Malthusian growth model with early state formation and interstate competition. It explores how the capacity of early states to collect tax revenue and provide productive public goods affects their population dynamics and interstate competition. We find that there is an optimal tax rate for each state that is increasing in the elasticity of agricultural output with respect to productive public goods. Without interstate competition, there is a threshold value for this elasticity below (equal) which the population converges to a steady state (grows at a constant rate) in the long run. With interstate competition, there is a lower threshold value for the above mentioned elasticity below (equal) which competing states coexist (only one state survives) in the long run. Whether we consider productive public goods as a flow or stock variable, the population-maximizing tax rate for each state is increasing in its elasticity of agricultural output with respect to productive public goods. We use historical data to provide empirical evidence for this theoretical result.

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