Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis: an application to the value of travel time savings.

Moral-Benito, Enrique (2008): Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis: an application to the value of travel time savings.

Abstract

In the evaluation of transportation infrastructure projects, some non-tradable goods such as time are usually key determinants of the result. However, obtaining monetary values for these goods is not always easy. This paper introduces a novel approach based on the combination of bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis. This methodology will allow to obtain predictive distributions of the monetary values for this type of goods. Therefore, uncertainty is formally considered in the analysis. Moreover, the proposed method is easy to apply and inexpensive both in terms of time and money. Finally, an application to the value of travel time savings is also presented.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Bayesian Prediction; Meta-Analysis; Uncertainty; Value of Travel Time Savings
• Subjects: L - Industrial Organization > L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities > L91 - Transportation: General; D - Microeconomics > D6 - Welfare Economics > D61 - Allocative Efficiency ; Cost-Benefit Analysis

References

Campos, J., de Rus, G., Barron, I., 2007. Some stylized facts about high speed rail. A review of HSR experiences around the world. Unpublished Manuscript.

de Rus, G., 2008. Analisis Coste-Beneficio, Ariel Economia.

Diebold, F., Gunther, T., Tay, A., 1998. Evaluating density forecasts with applications to financial risk management. \textit{International Economic Review}, 39, 863-883.

Diebold, F., Lopez, J., 1996. Forecast evaluation and combination. \textit{Handbook of statistics}, 241-268.

Hunter, J., Schmidt, F., 2004. Methods of Meta-analysis: Correcting error and bias in research findings, SAGE.

Koop, G., 2003. Bayesian Econometrics, Wiley-Interscience.

Lancaster, T., 2004. An Introduction to Modern Bayesian Econometrics, Blackwell Publishing.

Rosenblatt, M., 1952. Remarks on multivariate transformation. \textit{Annals of mathematical statistics}, 23, 470-472.

Viscusi, W., Aldy, J., 2003. The value of a statistical life: a critical review of market estimates throughout the world. \textit{NBER Working Papers}, No. 9487.

Zamparini, L., Reggiani, A., 2007. Meta-Analysis and the value of travel time savings: a transatlantic perspective in passenger transport, \textit{Networks and Spatial Economics}, 7, 377-396.