Análisis macroeconómico e institucional del riesgo de crédito en el sector agrícola de los países en desarrollo

Cortes Quiñonez, Juan Camilo and Cabezas, Stefania Cielo (2025): Análisis macroeconómico e institucional del riesgo de crédito en el sector agrícola de los países en desarrollo.

Abstract

Access to credit is a key driver of agricultural sector development in emerging economies; however, this process entails significant risks for financial institutions. This study examines credit risk in the agricultural sector from a macroeconomic and institutional perspective. A fixed-effects panel data model is employed for the period 2010–2022, using data from six selected countries: Colombia, Mexico, India, the Philippines, South Africa, and Romania. The dependent variable is the ratio of non-performing loans, used as a proxy for credit risk, while the independent variables include macroeconomic indicators, interest rates, institutional quality, and sector-specific agricultural variables. The results indicate that the real interest rate and agriculture's value added as a percentage of GDP are significant positive determinants of credit risk. Additionally, the analysis finds that higher government effectiveness is associated with an increase in the share of non-performing loans, potentially reflecting improved financial reporting and supervision practices. The study highlights the complex interplay between institutional environment, macroeconomic dynamics, and credit risk in the agricultural sector.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Credit risk in the agricultural sector: an agricultural economics analysis using panel data
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Credit Risk, Agricultural Sector, Agricultural Economics, Panel Data.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G19 - Other; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q14 - Agricultural Finance

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